Dean's World

Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

Annoying Headline of the Year

Quote: After lingering, mild flu season fades away.

This was the flu season that the establishment told us might kill between 5 million and 150 million people, and that one well-funded, deep-pocketed virus researcher said might kill as much as half the human population.

We keep throwing bucketfulls of money at these "researchers," and every year we let them scare the crap out of us regarding their Flavor Of The Month Bug: Ebola, SARS, West Nile, Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Mad Cow, and on and on.

Indeed, here's my prediction: by fall of 2006, or fall of 2007 at the latest, there will be yet another new bug that "might wipe out hundreds of millions of people," with a catchy new acronym or nickname. And there will be screaming headlines, and people looking very seriously at each other, reminding themselves of the 1918 flu epidemic--never once asking themselves if sanitary conditions, nutrition, and lack of antibiotics to treat secondary infections had anything to do with the death toll of that particular plague in 1918.

One of these days there's going to be Hell to pay for the Virus Hunters. Can't be soon enough for me. The whole thing has morphed into an incredible boondoggle of Big Government Incompetence meeting Big Business Greed. They should be laughingstocks by now.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Loose Change

A friend of mine who I like and respect recently saw a documentary called "Loose Change," which alleges basically that there are numerous inconsistencies in the official 9/11 story. Parts 1-3 are on YouTube. I started to explain what I found wrong with it, but I thought I might be easier to discuss it here.

Here's Part 1 of the film, via YouTube. I'm not sure I'll watch, or post, the other two parts.

Time was when this film would have made me angry. I would have refused to link it just because I didn't want to encourage these people. But enough time has gone on since 9/11, and I've run across enough people who think there are "inconsistencies in the official story," that it seems maybe a constructive analysis of something like this would be useful.

I am only being honest when I say that I see all the hallmarks of a Conspiracy Theory here in this film. It's not that I don't like contrarian views, or radical thoughts. I have my own opinions which often run counter to the established wisdom. So let me explain what are, to me, the hallmarks of Conspiracy Theories:

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1) Conspiracy Theorists rely on evidence that they themselves have carefully put together, even though none of them are experts in the subject. They then ask you to draw your own conclusions, even though you're not an expert either.

2) In events with huge numbers of eyewitnesses, it is entirely normal for there be people who are confused, misremember things, contradict themselves, or contradict each other. You see it every day: people don't even agree with each other on what they just saw on the news last night, let alone some big scary event where things are blowing up and people are screaming and running for their lives. But such normal contradictions are used by Conspiracy Theorists as evidence that something is very deeply wrong.

3) Conspiracy Theorists require that very large numbers of people--hundreds, even thousands--are involved in carefully plotted and carefully timed events, and then all (or mostly all) keep their mouths shut, and continue to hide the "real truth."

4) Conspiracy Theorists tend to have an explanation for everything. Or, they expect you to. In real life there are often ambiguities and things people don't quite understand. This is normal, but the Conspiracy Theorist uses it as evidence that something is very deeply wrong.

5) Conspiracy Theorists have an overpowering narrative to explain the whole thing which involves something very sinister, such as world domination, spreading an Empire, swinging an election, exterminating Jews, blacks, white Christians, or whatever.

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Now to be clear, none of these things PROVES a theory wrong. But any one of them is a red flag for me. The more of them I see, the more troubled I become. And I gotta be blunt, I see ALL of them in this film.

Furthermore, some of the items these guys bring up are just plain goofy. They want us to believe there was extra gear on the bottom of one of the planes, and none of the ground crew ever saw that? And the plane could still fly? And shoot missiles? Can we find an expert on civil aircraft who would support that theory?

They show us a photo of the plane hitting and a bit of a white flash before the orange explosion--so they want us to think a missile got shot out of this extra hidden gear at the bottom of the plane? How's this for an alternate explanation, from non-expert me? The plane nose hits, and a bunch of white concrete rubble flies out just before the belly of the plane with all the fuel hits.

Just a guess, but who do you think's closer to the truth? Me? Or these guys who want to tell us a freaking missile from special add-on equipment was shot from the belly of the plane, a fraction of a second before impact?

I could go on and on like this, but I don't think I have the energy. I mean, what really gets me is this:

There actually was a conspiracy here: a group of Islamic radicals, who years ago declared war on the United States and the Western World, decided to kill a bunch of Americans by flying airplanes into buildings. That's not enough of a conspiracy for you? You need something involving the U.S. military, the C.I.A., the F.B.I., the White House, The Pentagon, and even people placed inside the World Trade Center to carry this all off?

Popular Mechanics has a pretty good myth-debunking article that goes into a lot of this stuff. I nevertheless leave up the video, to invite Dean's World commenters to tell me if they think I'm wrong and have missed something important, or to chime in with whatever flaws they might also see in this film.

I'm hoping it generates some worthwhile discussion that doesn't degenerate into name-calling. Please try to discusses the merits of the film rationally, without name-calling or any of that. Tell me what else you see wrong here--or of you think I'm wrong about something, please tell me what you think I'm missing that's important.

Friday, April 21, 2006

Ancient and Modern Evidence Suggests Limits to Future Global Warming

Researchers at Duke University have a paper out in the journal Nature this week saying that a thorough review of the data suggests there is a discernible warming of the Earth's temperature over the last century, some of which may be due to man-made CO2 emissions, but the effect is not all that clear and the data doesn't support some of the more exaggerated estimates of global temperature increases. More right here.

My own take is still the same as it's been for some time: it's pretty clear that there's a probable warming trend, but it's not clear that it's catastrophic, and it's even less clear that it should be our top priority in terms of environmental concerns. Clean water, clean air, forest preservation, and so on should be at the top of the agenda, not this. Although I've also long said I'll compromise with the Greens: I'll happily support curbing CO2 emissions if part of the deal is that they stop demonizing nuclear power and support the building of new nuclear plants throughout America. Barring that, I'll continue my firm opposition to the Kyoto protocol and similar programs.

Jonah Goldberg had a pretty good take on this subject in yesterday's Los Angeles Times by the way: Seeing Red Over Green Scare.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Ancient and Modern Evidence Suggests Limits to Future Global Warming
  2. Moving away from a State of Fear?
  3. Climate Of Fear II
  4. Climate Of Fear And Bureaucracy In Science
  5. Global Warming Stopped?

Thursday, April 20, 2006

SPRAY

SPRAYThe Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and the Scripps Institute of Oceanography have put together a joint project called SPRAY, a robot that travels autonomously through the world's oceans measuring and recording temperature information.

At the moment they have just the one but they plan on having thousands of them roaming the oceans of the world over time, giving extremely accurate information about current and temperature.

Interesting, the robot has no propellor; rather, it moves through the ocean by gliding and moving its battery pack around to shift its weight and angle.

More on the story Scripps Institute home page.

(Thanks Mike.)

Monday, April 17, 2006

African Ancestry & DNA Test: My Results

About six weeks ago, I took a mitochondrial DNA test which traces the mother's mother's mother's line, etc. Both males and females inherit mitochondrial DNA from their mothers, but only females pass it down. Last month's edition of National Geographic magazine discussed how genetic markers passed down to us from our ancestors are leading scientists back across time to trace human migration patterns. The results represent only about 1 percent of my total genetic makeup, but identifies this matrilineal line. I'll take a little information, over none at all. Especially since my oldest known ancestor in my mother's mother's mother's etc. line, my great-great-great-grandmother C.D., was born in 1845 in Mississippi and the trail stops there. I had guessed - an admittedly very wild guess - that the C.D. line was descended from the Mende, who cluster in modern-day Liberia. Way off.

My results: my mtDNA has a 100% genetic sequence similarity match with the Mafa, Kotoko, and Masa tribes, which are neighboring tribes. The Mafa cluster in modern-day northern Cameroon, the Kotokos in northern Cameroon / southeastern Nigeria / southeastern Chad, and the Masa in northern Cameroon / southeastern Chad (map here).

I have had people guess that I was of Ghanaian, Nigerian, Senegalese, Liberian, or Angolan descent. Some folks have even guessed East African, which I dismissed due to history. However, only one person pointed at Cameroon (although not specific tribes)...and she was a Portuguese scientist visiting the United States just a few days ago. Ater getting the test results, I feel much the same. Other folks cry when they get their results, which I did not do. However, it is very nice and exciting to have more specific information about at least one line in my family tree. It also made for very interesting conversations with family members over the weekend. More importantly, it provides concrete scientific information about my past and is a tangible reminder that our family's history did not begin with slavery. Although this question crossed my mind: have I now gone from African-American to Mafa-Kotoko-Masa American? Or is that Cameroonian-Nigerian-Chadic American? I have settled on American of Mafa, Kotoko, and Masa descent.

Here is is some information about the Mafas, Kotokos, and Masas. All three groups speak Afro-Asiatic languages, and are in the Chadic language group. There is a debate among biologists and linguists in the Annals of Human Biology over whether all three tribes of which I am a descendant (plus a fourth one, the Hide people ) are more genetically and linguistically similar to other tribes in Western Africa, or to tribes in Eastern Africa and the Upper and Middle Nile Valley.

As I have mentioned in the past, I had promised that the first African country or countries that I would visit would depend on the results of the test. That means a trip to northern Cameroon, southeastern Nigeria, and southwestern Chad to help complete the circle. That is a key next step.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Climate Of Fear And Bureaucracy In Science

Rand Simberg compares and contrasts today's NASA bureaucracy with what it's been able to accomplish in the past. An obvious question comes to mind: NASA, working in partnership with some of the best aerospace and high-tech companies in the world, used to be arguably most innovative organization on the planet. So what the heck happened?

Dr. Richard Lindzen, a professor of Meteorology at MIT, has a fascinating piece in this week's Wall Street Journal. In it, he notes a disturbingly common trend in government-funded research in the area of Global Warming and Climate Change:

Ambiguous scientific statements about climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm, thus raising the political stakes for policy makers who provide funds for more science research to feed more alarm to increase the political stakes. After all, who puts money into science--whether for AIDS, or space, or climate--where there is nothing really alarming? Indeed, the success of climate alarmism can be counted in the increased federal spending on climate research from a few hundred million dollars pre-1990 to $1.7 billion today. It can also be seen in heightened spending on solar, wind, hydrogen, ethanol and clean coal technologies, as well as on other energy-investment decisions.

But there is a more sinister side to this feeding frenzy. Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their grant funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves libeled as industry stooges, scientific hacks or worse. Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science that supposedly is their basis.

You can read the rest right here, where he gives more details and examples.

It reminds me of what my friend (I'm increasingly able to call him that) Peter Duesberg's written about in his own area, molecular biology, wherein he notes the power of a small minority of scientists to control huge areas of government funding and publishable research, almost completely unaccounably and anonymously. Their power to do so, he notes:

...lays in the structure of the large, government-sponsored research programs that dominate academic research since World War II (Duesberg 1996b). Such programs favour individual investigators who contribute to the establishment a maximum of data and a minimum of controversy. However, if individual researchers move into new directions, that threaten the scientific and commercial investments of the establishment, the establishment can impose various sanctions via the "peer review system". The most powerful of these are denial of funding and of publication.

The peer review system derives its power from the little known practice of governments to deputize their authority to distribute funds for research to committees of "experts". These experts are academic researchers distinguished by outstanding contributions to the current establishment. They alone review the merits of research applications from their peers, and they have the right to elect each other to review committees. Outwardly, this "peer review system" appears to the unsuspecting government and taxpayer as the equivalent of a jury system – free of all conflicts of interest. But, in view of the many professional and commercial investments in and benefits from their expertise, and even of the rewards from their universities and institutions for the corresponding overheads and partnerships – all legal in the US since president Reagan – "peer reviewers" do not fund applications that challenge their own interests (Duesberg 1996b; Lang 1998; Zuger 2001). Since "peer review" is protected by anonymity, does not allow the applicant personal representation or an independent representative, nor a say or even a veto in the selection of the "jury", and does not allow an appeal, its powers to defend the orthodoxy are unlimited. The corporate equivalent of academia’s "peer review system” would be to give General Motors and Ford the authority to review and veto all innovations by less established carmakers competing for the consumer.

You can read the rest of that remarkable paper in PDF form right here. But please note: here he is not attacking the concept of peer review in general. Read what it says closely: he is attacking the practice of anonymous "peer review" boards which control all the funding.

Meanwhile, Dr. Marcia Angell, former Editor-In-Chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, has written extensively about how in yet another area of scientific research--namely, drug research--this entire increasingly unaccountable system operates. Since the early 1980s, for the best of reasons, the U.S. government began funding a lot of drug research itself, both directly and indirectly. There were many reforms along these lines that were well-intentioned but may need re-examination. For example:

The most important of these laws is known as the Bayh-Dole Act, after its chief sponsors, Senator Birch Bayh (D-Ind.) and Senator Robert Dole (R-Kans.). Bayh-Dole enabled universities and small businesses to patent discoveries emanating from research sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, the major distributor of tax dollars for medical research, and then to grant exclusive licenses to drug companies. Until then, taxpayer-financed discoveries were in the public domain, available to any company that wanted to use them. But now universities, where most NIH-sponsored work is carried out, can patent and license their discoveries, and charge royalties. Similar legislation permitted the NIH itself to enter into deals with drug companies that would directly transfer NIH discoveries to industry.

Bayh-Dole gave a tremendous boost to the nascent biotechnology industry, as well as to big pharma. Small biotech companies, many of them founded by university researchers to exploit their discoveries, proliferated rapidly. They now ring the major academic research institutions and often carry out the initial phases of drug development, hoping for lucrative deals with big drug companies that can market the new drugs. Usually both academic researchers and their institutions own equity in the biotechnology companies they are involved with. Thus, when a patent held by a university or a small biotech company is eventually licensed to a big drug company, all parties cash in on the public investment in research.

These laws mean that drug companies no longer have to rely on their own research for new drugs, and few of the large ones do. Increasingly, they rely on academia, small biotech startup companies, and the NIH for that.[7] At least a third of drugs marketed by the major drug companies are now licensed from universities or small biotech companies, and these tend to be the most innovative ones.[8] While Bayh-Dole was clearly a bonanza for big pharma and the biotech industry, whether its enactment was a net benefit to the public is arguable.

The Reagan years and Bayh-Dole also transformed the ethos of medical schools and teaching hospitals. These nonprofit institutions started to see themselves as "partners" of industry, and they became just as enthusiastic as any entrepreneur about the oppor-tunities to parlay their discoveries in-to financial gain. Faculty researchers were encouraged to obtain patents on their work (which were assigned to their universities), and they shared in the royalties. Many medical schools and teaching hospitals set up "technology transfer" offices to help in this activity and capitalize on faculty discoveries. As the entrepreneurial spirit grew during the 1990s, medical school faculty entered into other lucrative financial arrangements with drug companies, as did their parent institutions.

One of the results has been a growing pro-industry bias in medical research —exactly where such bias doesn't belong. Faculty members who had earlier contented themselves with what was once referred to as a "threadbare but genteel" lifestyle began to ask themselves, in the words of my grandmother, "If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?" Medical schools and teaching hospitals, for their part, put more resources into searching for commercial opportunities.

You can read Angell's lengthy indictment of how an opaque, accountability-free bureaucracy effectively controls almost all government funding for drug research these days, and how almost all drug research is now funded by the government, not the private drug companies, right here.

By coincidence, another former editor of the New England Journal of Medicine, Dr. Jerome P. Kassirer, has a book out where he expounds on similar themes: Precious little research is really being done by the private sector; more and more of it is being done through government grants; the regulating agencies are dominated by industry insiders; the profit motives are intense and terribly seductive; the "peer review" process for giving out grants is mostly anonymous and built on a good-ol-boy network of mutually supporting researchers; and surprisingly fewer real innovations in research area actually happening, at least in areas where the biggest research money is being done.

What is most important about all of this is that it didn't used to be this way. This lack of accountability, this lack of transparency in the funding process, is a relatively new phenomenon, but it's one that's eating away at free inquiry and real science in too many areas where the confluence of big government and big business collude. And none of it--or very, very little of it, anyway--actually requires any mustache-twirling villains or vast conspiracies.

All it requires is billions of dollars, and an operating environment so laden with fear and croneyism and bureaucratic inertia that it allows things to happen every day that would never pass the due disclosure requirements for any new business seeking investors, or any manual on ethical practices in business or government.

That's not an "anti-government" thing, nor is it an "anti business" thing. It's a "we need to start thinking about how to reform the system" kind of thing.

As I've often said, if you don't want the dirty, dirty politics in your science, stop taking the dirty, dirty political money--and that includes all the political money, including the tax breaks, the government contracts to provide services, the patent protections, and everything else. Otherwise, we need to demand more accountability, more transparency, more clear objectives, and more scrutiny.

The question is, do we have the will to do it? Or will we allow the "scientific community" and the "medical community" to maintain an aura of mystique and holiness that cannot be questioned?

Monday, April 3, 2006

Lunatic Scientists

So, here's a story of a scientist who wants 90% of the human race to die.

Here's yet another.

The creepy, death-embracing, anti-humanist impulse is alive and well I see.

What's worse is, the equipment to tamper with viruses gets cheaper and cheaper, and easier and easier. $10,000 equipment that a grad student can operate can now be used to create or modify viruses in a lab. That equipment, just like computer equipment, keeps getting cheaper and easier to use and more sophisticated. Almost no one is taking this seriously.

Evolutionary Middleman Reviews

Our friend John Blackman reviews Oncogenes, Aneuploidy & AIDS: A Scientific Life & Times of Peter Duesberg.

His view of the book is pretty similar to mine. He's got some great quotes that are worth reading. My own favorite, which I can't resist sharing:

"Of course complex organisms would evolve and maintain an entire repertoire of potentially deadly genes. Why not?"

Anyway, read John's review.