Dean's World

Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy.

Record-Breaking Growth

Tom Blumer's BizzyBlog notes that we're currently in the second-longest period of sustained economic growth in history.

The question I'd have for Tom is: are middle-income people seeing similar rates of growth in either their pocketbooks or their job security?

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triticale (mail) (www):
Either/or? Yes. I'm making just over twice what I was seven quarters ago. For another week till the project is finished. Actually, if the wee wifey's mobility issues did not inhibit me from taking out of town jobs, I could keep making at least this much on a steady basis. Nationwide there is a labor shortage in my field.
11.11.2005 7:49am
Matthew B. (mail) (www):
My salary has increased by 25% the last 3 years, so at least one part of the equation holds true. As for job security, eh, I don't believe that that is an indicator of an economic upturn. The way that I stay employed is by enhancing my current skills while learning some new ones. A lot of tasks that I used to perform manually have been automated, so I learned how to write the automation programs.

Years ago, I either read a story or watched a TV show where the following conversation took place:

"So what will you do if they replace you at your job with a little black box?"

"I'll get a job making the little black boxes."

That idea has been stuck in my brain for as long as I can remember. What it means for me, it means that I shouldn't plan for my own obsolescence.

When I worked as a materials engineer of aerospace alloys, I worked with some highly skilled people who had been performing the same task for 20+ years. No one in the world was better at their jobs than them. However, they didn't bother to improve their skills and computer automation eventually replaced most of those jobs. However, the people programming the computers were in high demand.

Job security as our parents new it in the 1950's, where you would work for the same company for your entire career, has gone the way of the dodo. The best thing to do is to accept it, and move on.

I don't mean to sound sanguine about unemployment. I've been out of work before and it sucks, big time, and I have a family to support, too. However, I've paid attention to what skills are in demand, learned some of them and stayed ahead of job loss for the last decade. To do that, I've had to change jobs 4 times during that time period. However, all the moves were of my own making. My job security comes from my willingness to adapt to a changing workplace and my ability to learn new skills. I believe that that is how job security is actually defined these days. Just my opinion, of course.
11.11.2005 9:09am
Tom Blumer (mail) (www):
Thanks for noticing, Dean.

I'll get to my homework assignment tomorrow. Friday is normally "glib day" at BizzyBlog.

Though it's not directly on-target, looking at income quintiles, which is what I'll do tomorrow, ignores the factor of economic mobility between quintiles, which I addressed at another post a while ago:

Income Inequality + Economic Mobility = Long-Term Prosperity
http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=574

Cheers,

Tom Blumer
BizzyBlog.com
11.11.2005 12:44pm
Scott Kirwin (mail) (www):
I'm making less today than I was 5 years ago - but I've switched careers (programmer to analyst) and I'm working on several long-term entrepreneurial initiatives. I'm optimistic in the long-term, but short-term I'm taking a lot of risks which have caused more than a few sleepless nights.

As for the "Black Box" analogy mentioned by Matthew - what do you do if the Black Boxes are made in China by people earning less than our minimum wage?

This is the trouble faced by my peers at The ITPAA.
11.11.2005 1:30pm
JRogge:
My friend just lost his job to outsourced labor as well. Seems computer programmers don't need to have jobs in this country when other people are willing to do the work cheaper. Yes because of reduced labor costs the econmy from abusiness standpoint is going to zoom steadily forward. However, if this is at the cost of jobs for a rapidly growing population of people, then we will have to look to other countries for our consumer base as well.
11.11.2005 3:33pm
Tom Blumer (mail) (www):
My response post is up:

The Saturday Challenge: The Economy Is Doing Well. How About Income Growth? (and a Bonus Look at the Long-Term)

HERE
11.12.2005 4:50pm
Tom Blumer (mail) (www):
I haven't addressed the job security issue because I wouldn't know where to go to get an indicator. Mass layoffs are only a small part of the picture, and besides some people who get laid off hook up at another place seamlessly pretty quickly.

Any suggestions on measuring actual job security (not "feelings" of job security" would be welcome.

BizzyBlog.com
biz@bizzyblog.com
11.14.2005 1:00am