Cold Fusion?
Dean
In yesterday's discussion of the (probable) junk science of Randell Mills, several people brought up the concept of cold fusion in a non-mocking way. Not because Randell Mills is promising cold fusion, but some brought up cold fusion as similar junk science--and a few gave a tentative defense of the subject.
This led me to the home page of MIT Professor Peter L. Hagelstein, and then to this interesting writeup in the Washington Post. And by the way, although the story doesn't say, the DOE released its report on cold fusion in December of last year, basically saying that they'd consider research applications on the subject through the normal peer review process but wouldn't start any direct projects on it.
I'm still more than a little skeptical but this seems to fit with an uncomfortable pattern that's been noted in a lot of other areas of research: researchers who go off the beaten path to study things or take positions that aren't warmly embraced by their colleague are often stigmatized and denied any respect or funding. This is troublesome.
To quote from a paper from a similar maverick:
"The peer review system derives its power from the little known practice of governments to deputize their authority to distribute funds for research to committees of "experts". These experts are academic researchers distinguished by outstanding contributions to the current establishment. They alone review the merits of research applications from their peers, and they have the right to elect each other to review committees. Outwardly, this "peer review system" appears to the unsuspecting government and taxpayer as the equivalent of a jury system – free of all conflicts of interest. But, in view of the many professional and commercial investments in and benefits from their expertise, and even of the rewards from their universities and institutions for the corresponding overheads and partnerships – all legal in the US since president Reagan – "peer reviewers" do not fund applications that challenge their own interests...Since "peer review" is protected by anonymity, does not allow the applicant personal representation or an independent representative, nor a say or even a veto in the selection of the "jury", and does not allow an appeal, its powers to defend the orthodoxy are unlimited. The corporate equivalent of academia’s "peer review system" would be to give General Motors and Ford the authority to review and veto all innovations by less established carmakers competing for the consumer."
"Even the professional journals and the science writers of the public media comply with the interests of government- funded majorities because they depend on their monthly "scientific breakthroughs", the lucrative advertisements from their companies, and the opinion of their subscribers."
I'm more than a little skeptical of the cold fusion claims, but to be honest I'm increasingly even more skeptical of the system we have in place now where mavericks with new ideas can be quietly slapped down without even a chance at being heard, and where one mistake can ruin a career. Sonia Arrison had a good piece on this earlier this year, nothing something that's obvious to those of us who've worked in high tech most of our lives: mavericks in high tech, when they fail, generally are helped up onto their feet, dusted off, and congratulated for at least making an attempt and having taught others something valuable: their approach didn't work. Yet people in more traditional areas of research instead are treated as pariahs. Why?
Max Planck observed that, often, the only way to make certain advances in science was wait for certain people to die. "Science advances one coffin at a time" I believe he said.
I would think a more open jury system and an appeals process for funding applications would definitely help alleviate some of that.









and it's been my experience that those on grant review panels are fairly ethical people, even though its a closed-door process. the fact that it's closed-door, by the way, is to help prevent conflicts of interest, or to prevent reviewers from feeling pressured to pass a grant out of fear of retaliation. most grant panels are instructed to try and divide the grant money awarded among both respected researchers working on established projects, and newer professors working on new technologies or theories.
and with regards to sonia, i've had a number of (funded) projects get started and then have their legs fall off midway through. that's science. everyone expects that. the only time you ever get treated as a pariah, in my experience, is when you fail, but still willingly publish misleading or misrepresentative data, making a case that isn't there to be made.
if a review-board made up of your peers isn't the right way to go, what would be the alternative?
I spent several summers as a grad student at Brookhaven National Lab in Long Island. One summer, I arrived just in time for an edict to be handed down from DOE that our collaboration should drop everything and look for evidence of cold fusion.
We protested, because we were all convinced it was a waste of time and we were already behind schedule. DOE, however, was adamant. Their argument was essentially, "We just bought you a one million dollar neutron detector. You WILL use it to look for cold fusion. Got it?"
So we did. I had been following the debate in the press, but up until that point I had assumed that "fusion in a test tube" was just a figure of speech. It wasn't. They had a tiny palladium electrode down in a normal, honest-to-God test tube, surrounded by a lead shield and our neutron detector. "20/20" was there with their cameras filming the whole thing.
We reproduced the experiment to spec, and, as expected, didn't see anything at first. Then, however, we saw an intense burst of neutrons that spiked once and then disappeared. A few hours later it happened again. It was late and we were getting giddy and we began to wonder if perhaps there might be something to this after all. Maybe we'd even be in the history books. We just couldn't account for the fact that the neutrons were coming in such isolated bursts.
Until, that is, we realized the bursts happened every time the accelerator next door to ours dumped their ring. We reported our negative findings, dismantled the apparatus, and moved ahead with our other projects.
Not that I don't think that an appeals system would be potentially useful, I'd just want to be pretty careful about how it worked. Actually, rather than an appeals process, maybe we ought to just have a few grants a year which are given out essentially at random to qualified researchers who haven't been able to justify funding through conventional paths.
For many fields of research, government grants are the only place that research dollars are avaialable in sufficient funds to make significant advances. And since the 1980s, the troubling reality is that those who are on the review boards are often people with direct financial interest in the status quo being maintained.
The justification for the anonymous nature of the process strikes me as reasonable for a time when grants were few and far between and financial conflicts of interest weren't allowed. Now that they are, and now that we're talking about literally billions in funding from the government, I would think greater transparency is a reasonable request for taxpayers as well as for scientists who feel they've been censored by peers with conflicts of interest.
Several suggestions have been floated, including giving grant applicants a right to representation, and an appeals process. Those certainly strike me as good ideas.
Same thing happens to me when I'm watching TV and the neighbor turns on his blender.
Great story cynical. I heard a similar one where the effect happened only at lunchtime. Turned out they were detecting the microwave next door.
(Joke.)
To the more serious point: peer review may work pretty well, but that doesn't mean it can't be improved upon. These people control literally billions of our tax dollars. It is not at all unreasonable to call for greater transparency, or an appeals process, or a right to representation.
True... but on the other hand, a lot of them will have been rejected for good reason and shouldn't be used as examples of how the system went awry (not everyone who challenges the system and loses is a misunderstood genius)! It's like taking someone's ex's word for what an asshole they are.
I think it'd be most useful to look at cases where the scientist in question initially encountered resistance and has since definitively proved his/her point. Some of these people may also qualify as 'disgruntled', but we'll at least have firm reason to believe that it's not just the fury of the scientist scorned. If we can look at exactly what prevented these people from getting whatever it is they were denied (funding, lab time, publication) maybe it can be addressed. It also might be worthwhile to try to identify challenges which didn't encounter excessive resistance, and figure out why things went more smoothly.
Any appeals process will still have to involve having someone make a judgement about whether the publication/proposal is worthwhile, and unless we can get pretty specific about how the initial vetting failed and how to rectify it on a second-chance review, nothing will change for the better.
I do like the idea of occasionally giving out grants almost at random, a sort of "wild hare" grant. But I think demands for greater transparency are important.
This is tax money we're talking about, and the request is for transparency. Where else in government do we allow someone to control hundreds of millions or billions of dollars anonymously, with no accountability and no public review process?
Look at the field of cancer research. For literally decades they've poured billions into research on oncogenes and on cancer viruses, with little to show for it. Cancer researchers who wanted to explore other areas of research were routinely denied funding. And so yes, this brings up Duesberg again, since he wrote a series of papers in the 1980s that elegantly laid out why the oncogene and virus hypotheses were fatally flawed, and proposing that aneuploidy might not be a symptom of cancer, but rather its actual cause. Just recently there have been editorials in Science and Nature saying that research on aneuploidy may just be the future of cancer research.
So why was Peter denied funding for aneuploidy research, when his background in the area was sterling? He'll tell you why: the people who controlled the funding didn't like him, and their egos were too big to admit that they might be wrong.
That's a clear breakdown of the process, and quite possibly something that not only caused us to waste billions of dollars, but potentially cost countless lives as well.
As taxpayers we have a right to demand greater accountability and greater transparency in how our funds are spent. Looking more carefully at questions of conflict of interest is a start. Creating an appeals process and a right to representation for dissident researchers would certainly be good starts, and shouldn't be anything anyone honest should object to.
Of course, that could get recursive, but it's one approach. :)
As for Elizabeth's point, I'd like to quote Carl Sagan on research and new ideas: "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."
How do you think increased transparency will solve the problem? I'm having trouble getting a fix on a concrete image of what you're proposing as an alternative to the present system. When someone appeals, who hears the appeal and how do they decide what to fund in your redesigned system?
He was literally chased out of the United States, and wound up doing experiments on himself because he couldn't get funded.
It's a great example of what we're discussing. Drug companies in the United States fund a tremendous amount of medical research, and a company making $1 BILLION each year from Tagamet doesn't want to encourage someone who believes he can cure ulcers with $10 of antibiotics.
I couldn't find any account of this on the Web, so can you point me to one? Googling 'Marshall helicobacter "denied funding"' didn't get me anything, but if you're right, then yeah, Marshall would be a great example.
(Um, I doubt you mean 'literally' literally - literally chased? As in he had to run for the plane because they were after him with torches and pitchforks? Using 'literally' figuratively is kind of a pet peeve of mine because then, what word can you use to mean 'literally'? 'Literally literally'?)
"It's easy to lie with statistics, but it's easier to lie without them"
Exact same problem with peer review.
Yes, there are significant problems with excessive "clubbishness" with peer review. Just like a frat house, some folks are in, and some folks are out.
Yes, the "publish or perish" dogma has also made the fact that someone publishes, more important than what he actually publishes. That's why there's so accumulated crap out there, that no sane person ever reads.
But, there isn't really a good alternative to peer review. Without it, there would be even worse science out there.
How to make it better, more fair? I'm all ears. For one, it's up to scientists to be honest and honorable while suppressing any agenda they may have. Often they fall short.
Barnes, Hank
p.s. Cynical Nation: Great story on cold fusion!
You don't end peer review. You make it more accountable when it comes to controlling funding.
Whenever large amounts of money are at stake, end the anonymous nature of the juries. Make them directly accountable for who they fund and who they don't. Anonymity may have its benefits but it also holds much too much possibility for abuse. Make them known, and make their deliberations public.
Furthermore, it's probably wise to have some cross-disciplinary members on all juries, to minimize the "clubbiness" that happens when a small clique of people in the same field all control all the available funding.
Allow applicants to have advocates.
Allow for an appeals process. It's simple enough to have a board that adjudicates those for anyone who claims he's being discriminated against for political or conflict-of-interest reasons.
These are the normal things we do with other government grants. Indeed, they're normal government processes, period. It may sound wise to say "science isn't about politics," but anyone who's practiced it or been around enough scientists knows that's a fucking lie. Most of the sciences are extremely political, and furthermore, if you're receiving tax money that AUTOMATICALLY makes it political. You don't get to slap a badge on your chest and say, "I'm a SCIENTIST, I do not answer to these petty political processes!" Yes, you do. You work for the taxpayer, you answer to the taxpayer, and if you don't like it then stop applying for taxpayer-funded grants.
The whole system needs greater transparency and accountability.
Directly accountable how, is my question? If they fail to fund someone and later that person gets different funding and gets good results, do they get fined, or what?
Allow for an appeals process. It's simple enough to have a board that adjudicates those for anyone who claims he's being discriminated against for political or conflict-of-interest reasons.
I can see that, and I think the idea has some merit. I think there might be some practical difficulties. One is that there are always more proposals than there is funding. If a proposal goes to appeal and gets funded, it'll mean taking funding away from another, previously approved proposal (or, alternatively, reserving some funding for proposals which only get funded on appeal). This reduces an already small pool of money which would make approving the 'conventional' proposals even harder.
It may sound wise to say "science isn't about politics"
Who said anything of the sort?
Names and affiliations. They are hardly anonymous.
As far as their deliberations being confidential that is as much for the benefit of the applicants as the committees since grant applications contain unpublished ideas and data.
Dale
And the amount of money in some subjects isn't small at all, it runs into the billions annually. Yet there's a climate of secrecy, as described above, and a lack of accountability. We need to end that.
As for saying science shouldn't be about politics, I've heard that from tons of people and I'm surprised you haven't. It's bullshit, obviously, because if you take government money it's automatically political.
Dale: I'm never sure what to make of it when you say patently obvious things that are irrelevant.
That reviewers (NIH anyway) aren't anonymous isn't relevant? Then I guess I really have missed the point.
Dale
By the way, there is an appeal process which is described, again, at the NIH website.
Dale
I knew that you'd take the cautious, it's probably crap but some pretty smart people seem to think otherwise approach to cold fusion. I don't claim to be an advocate, but there has been private and government money funnelled into this research for about 15 years. Last time I checked, Japan was still looking into it, although they have even more reason to discover an almost free energy source than we do.
I was a graduate physics student back when the story originally broke and, as I may have mentioned, it was probably the first theory that was debunked before anyone tried the experiment.
For what it's worth, I've checked on cold fusion reports from time to time, and once saw some interesting theories on why the results appeared to be scattershot. And no, it wasn't because someone opened the door to the accelerator.
Another realm of interest along similar lines is that of sonar/cavitation fusion. That actually shows more promise, and appears more repeatable experimentally. Not surprisingly, the idea has been poo-pooed from the usual suspects.
I agree about this money and research issue. As a former grad slave for an experimentalist, I got to see the ugly underbelly of the research-for-more-money-for-research-for-more-money. There was one PhD who had the whistle blown on him during the late 1980's, early 1990's. Her grad advisor had been doctoring his test results so as to get funding. What's amazing, or maybe not so much, is that the professor is still working and the former student was blackballed. Trust me: it's a freaking ugly mess.
Last I heard, the Japanese megacorps were pouring hundreds of millions into cold fusion. Mitsubishi is supposed to hold a couple of dozen related patents in Japan. That's backed up here:
http://peswiki.com/index.php/PowerPedia:Cold_fusion