Democrats Suck. Republicans Suck 2% more!
Dean
Gallup reports that nobody likes either major political party.
Okay, actually, they report that both parties have their highest unfavorability numbers in history. Does that mean a breakout of a third party as a major force in the next election? For 2006, not a chance. For 2008: only if things remain this way, and if both parties nominate someone seen as an "establishment" candidate.
If things still look like this in late 2007, look for major efforts in both parties to nominate someone seen as a maverick.
My gut keeps saying the odds of Rudy Giuliani getting the Republican nod are going up, for whatever it's worth. I also begin to have my doubts about Senator Clinton's ability to win her own party's nomination. She'll have to work hard to shake off the idea that she's an "establishment" candidate. But then, she'll be able to say she wants to bring back the robust reform-minded agenda of the early Clinton administration, so that could work for her. I'm still hoping to back New Mexico's Bill Richardson for the Democratic nominee myself though.
In any case, my strongest prediction is that whichever party has the most coherent and easily explained agenda in both 2006 and 2008 will be the one to do best.
Just what we need. More disillusionment with government and reduced participation.
The worst part of reduced participation is that it benefits extremists and radicals of all stripes at the expense of people with mainstream views.
In a de facto two-party system, ostensible third parties generally serve only to undermine whichever group they are ideologically closer to. See Perot, Ross.
His argument boils down to the following a) Making purely utilitarian and far extrapolated arguments, even when true, can lead to some pretty undesirable moral results, b) For example, blacks commit a disproportionate percentage of crimes. c) Levitt claims that increased abortions reduced the crime rate by reducing potential criminals. d) Extrapolating from b and c, if we aborted all black babies, then the crime rate should go down. e) However, this utilitarian result is something we would never want to do because it runs so afoul of our morals.
That morality sometimes trumps utility in social questions, and that, in effect, moral issues should be debated on moral grounds and utilitarian issues debated on utilitarian grounds, is actually a very insightful point.
As for the two parties, Democrats vs. Republicans, that's funny. I've gone the opposite way. All my life I've called myself an Independent, but, having both observed the contrasting behavior of the two parties since 9/11/2001, and having reviewed the contrasting histories of the two parties, the choice could hardly be more black and white. I am on the black side. I am obviously a rock-ribbed Thaddeus Stevens Republican.
The Democratic party has, for the most part, been the party of slavery and secession, then of segregation, then of socialism, and -- now -- of surrender. The Republican party, from Lincoln to Reagan, has been the party of freedom, of individual rights, individual responsibility, capitalism, militarily strong but Constitutionally limited government, fiscal responsibility, fiscal integrity, a sound dollar. There is no longer any question in my mind as to how I will vote in the coming elections. Unless something really unusual happens, I will vote Republican. The only question I have now is why it took me so long to arrive at that obvious conclusion.
A couple years ago, I did a comparison of which Presidents or Presidential candidates in every election in my lifetime, from Eisenhower (1956) to Bush (2000), had more style. In every case, it was the Republican.
Both parties have, in the past, had those in it who were anti-Catholic and/or anti-Jewish. But Republicans expressed those prejudices by keeping non-WASPS out of their country clubs, while Democrats expressed those prejudices by wearing sheets over their heads while burning crosses on other people's property. Today, if you wish to find a Jew-hater, you'll find him in the Democratic party attacking Israel. If you want to find a Catholic-hater, you'll find him in the pro-abortion movement which now dominates the Democrats' theory of jurisprudence.
A woman against a man = an even higher bullshit level than usual.