The Real Make-Or-Break For Iraq?
Dean
Tall Dave says that the real make-or-break for democracy in Iraq will be Iraq's economy, and has some numbers and analysis worth considering.
There's reason to be hopeful if it's so, because despite what you may have heard about China's fast-growing economy--growing at a whopping 9% last year--it pales in comparison to the rapid economic growth in the last two years in Iraq.
Electricity demand in Iraq has skyrocketed, rising far faster than we/they can add more capacity, and as a result Iraqis get fewer hours per day of power than before the war, despite the fact they actually consume significantly more kWh. I've seen half a dozen articles claiming on this basis that the situation is "worse."
While the economy is important, the make-or-break test for Iraq is the security situation. Guarantees of free speech and freedom of the press in a constitution don’t mean anything if there are armed groups going around assassinating anyone who says or publishes something they do not like. There is far too much of this going on in Iraq today, and the current government seems to be powerless to stop it. Some people have even suggested that some of parties involved in the government are responsible. Democracy will never succeed in Iraq until the security situation drastically improves.
Of cours ethat won't stop the foreign jihadists from coming over the border. Sadly, very little will stop that unless we build a gigantic wall around the entire country. A million troops in the country wouldn't do it.
History suggests the economy is what makes or breaks the security situation.
Which makes sense, if you think about it. If you have a comfortable life, armed revolt seems like a big bother.