American Idol 2005 Finale
Dean
Two weeks ago we learned that less than 1% separated the top 3 contestants. I view this as yet another sign that this is Bo Bice's contest to lose: Bo will pick up far more of Vonzell's fans than Carrie will.
In a related vein, I just got this note from John Burgess which seems worth posting for conversation's sake:
First, I want to thank you for both linkery and for posting weekly about American Idol.
On the AI front, I wonder if you could ask your readers about their experience in phoning in to vote for someone. I've seen several MSM articles saying that people were being prevented from voting due to constantly busy signals. That has supposedly spawned paranoid blogs to theorize on vague plots to fix the results. (I confess that I'm too lazy to go out to verify this point... there's enough in the way of conspiracy theories out there to touch just about everything since creation... speaking of which.....)
While I've gotten a busy signal right as a show ends, I've always been able to get through within the first hour. Has anyone been blocked for the full two-hour voting period?
A secondary question: If people vote, how many times do they vote? All for the same person, or did they split votes (when it might have made sense to do so)?
I for one do not and never have believed that the show's producers do anything to jerry-rig the vote beyond whatever encouragement comes from the judges. There's simply no reason to do it, because the voting system works very well.
The system is not "democratic" in the literal sense. People can vote as many times as they want. Why? Because multiple votes translates to audience intensity. People who keep trying over and over again, wait through busy signals, and vote multiple times, are sending a signal: "I really like this artist--a lot!"
As someone who's worked in telecommunications, I can also tell you it's nearly impossible to guarantee that no one will ever get a busy signal. Phone companies can guarantee a certain amount of bandwidth is all, and even that has limits. So from their perspective, it's easiest to put together a group of lines for American Idol, and equalize the bandwidth on all of them. It's more difficult for them to do it any other way.
From the phone company's perspective, they could get their pants sued off, maybe even face fraud investigations, if they went along with cheating. To what end? Because the President of AT&T Wireless really loves Scott Savol?
From the show producers' perspective, they also don't have any reason to cheat: if John Burgess likes Carrie Underwood but not enough to try hard to get through, then John Burgess is less likely later on to run out and buy a CD, to download songs for his iPod, to go see Carrie in concert, etc.
I'm sure that some economist has a name for this phenomenon, but basically they aren't running a democracy, they're running a meritocratic popularity contest: who do people like best and most intensely? From that perspective, making it a little harder to vote is actually a bonus for the producers.
Contrast that with what would happen if it were found out that the producers were intentionally rigging the voting process to give some artists an advantage. If that could be proven, the show would be destroyed--there might be class action lawsuits, fraud investigations, and so on. Why do it, when the system as it is works so simply and well?
Furthermore, as with any conspiracy theory, there's a simple test: to pull it off, how many people would have to be involved--and how many of them would have to stay forever silent?
In a case like this, you'd be involving the producers and assistant producers and administrative assistants and so on, and ALSO phone company executives, phone company technicians, phone company computer programmers, and other telephone support people. All of whom would have to stay silent forever.
Add it up in your head: you're basically asking at least a hundred or so people to clam up, and to stay clammed up for good--many of them risking losing their jobs or going to jail for fraud if someone else blows the whistle. (It would also leave the executives in the position of being blackmailed by underlings.)
And all to what end? So they could pick their own favorite? Why, when the process as it is gives the network a hugely popular TV show, lots of business for the phone company, and guarantees that whoever gets the most votes will have the strongest fan base?
Simply put, there's no strong motivation for anyone to rig the system (except for judge's comments, encouragements, etc.). There's very little to gain, and tons to lose.
Besides, if the producers really think someone who placed 5th or 6th would make a better pop star, there's an easy way to test that: give him a recording contract (which, as it turns out, some also-rans have gotten).
So, it's really simple: vote as often as you like for whoever you like. If an artist has a busy signal, that's a sign the artist is popular--and it's a test for you: how much do you really like this artist? Enough to keep trying? And if so, how long?
In the end, the winner will be the one who has the most enthusiastic fan base.
So, to get back to my prediction: it's Bo's to lose. But tonight should be a great show regardless. I'm already warming up the popcorn!
* Update * Bo's first, an original, "Long Long Road" — nice, but no showcase for him. Carrie's first, also an original, "Inside Your Heaven": It's a better showcase for her talents than Bo's was for his. I guess she wins that round just for that, although she seemed nasally to me. Bo's second song: Re-do of "Vehicle." To be honest, it seemed like he phoned that in to me. Disappointment here. Carrie's second song: Re-do of "Independence Day." It's a perfect vehicle for her (heh). Simon Cowell thought it was "strained," but I thought it was "earnest." I give that round to Carrie too (dammit). Bo's third: Very clever! He does Carrie's first song, and she does his! Hey, he's doing this better than she did (or is it just because I know the song now?). Carrie's third, "Long Long Road": I already predict she's going to do the same thing, this'll be a better song for her than it was for Bo. Very freaking clever producers. Anyway, here she goes: Nope, not working for me. I have no urge to hear that song again--I do want to hear Bo sing "Inside Your Heaven" again though. Last round to Bo.
What say you?
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Just the way General Abd'ul Karim Kassem slaughtered the young British-propped Hashemite monarch of Iraq, King Faisal, in Baghdad on July 14, 1958. That night, Kassem found himself in command of the only major army unit in the capital. That was all it took. Five years later, Kassem was executed in turn by the Ba'athists. The rest was rock and roll.
Being that Mr Burgess is a retired diplomat with extensive experience in Arabia and presumably other Arab countries during his career, I am certain he would know all about these trends among Arabs.
Fortunately, in our culture and civilization, the losers on American Idol just go back to obscurity musical obscurity.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Yeah, it sounds mean-spirited, but someone's got to go, right? You might as well vote for whom you want it to be.
The problem with the current system, I think, is that it encourages dangerous "tactical" voting. Rather than vote for their true favorite, people often vote for someone they like but are afraid might get turboed. As a result, talented candidates who are considered "safe" often get fewer votes than they really deserve. I think that's the only way to explain the travesty of Tamyra Gray getting booted so early in the first season, for example.
Voting off who leaves would also lose a lot of the charm of the show to be honest. The way it is now it's who people like best. Having them vote for who they like worst encourages them to dislike contestants. It makes those who win less popular too--people start to hate the winners more because they felt their own favorites were unfairly ganged up on. Just think about it for the final two: it would all become an argument among fans on who stinks the most. Would that really help drive record sales later on down the road?
Also, who would go to see those live concerts featuring all of the top 10 contestants--to see all those people who most watchers thought sucked?
Nah. It's perfect the way it is. The show's creators and producers are very smart.
This is so much a matter of style preference now. I like Bo's style better, so to me he had the better night. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Carrie win.
But to reiterate BLECH on the original songs. These singers deserved something better to compete with.
I only caught the end of the show.
Second, my wife votes, and she almost never gets a dial tone for the first 15-20 minutes after voting opens. And we live in what would pass as middle of the road suburban/rural/near urban population density. I suspect its network overload.
And as far as multiple voting per person/phone line goes, there’s another reason they allow multiple votes. It would cost big bucks to track each individual vote, and ensure that one phone line would give one and only one vote. They couldn’t realistically do that without charging a fee to vote.
And we also have to consider that there might be multiple people in each household (each phone line) who want to vote. There’s no reasonable way to track those individuals at a low cost.
So multiple/unlimited votes per line is the most logical, cost effective way to go.