Dean's World

Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy.

Manipulation

Economist Donald Luskin notes that the prediction shares in Bush on Tradesports have been intentionally manipulated by an unknown investor. I have no reason to doubt the truth of this, although I find it amusing to think that anyone believes that this would make a difference in the election. Too few people take these prediction markets seriously for it to have any effect on the overall election I would say.

Also, Steven Den Beste notes that poll numbers have apparently been intentionally manipulated in the past few months. Although I find his overall analysis quite reasonable, I do take exception in one regard: he is relying on an aggregate of all national polls. But we have known for years that various press outfits will publish far less reliable numbers than others, and Newsweek is probably the premier example this year, having apparently intentionally rigged the results a couple of times. I believe that if Mr. Den Beste relied on an aggregate of polls only by reputable, scentifically sound polling companies such as Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, and a handful of others, he would probably see much more reliable numbers. But I don't know of anyone who's put the work into a more selective sample group like that.

As I have said many times, polls are scientifically valid but only when done properly, and it's as important sometimes to know who did the poll as it is to see the numbers, for some groups are far more reputable and responsible than others.

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Janelle :
Hi Sweetheart, I could tell Jacob was having a great time at his party yesterday. Be sure to go to Amazon.com with him to pick out his favorite books and send me his list.

I thought since you have so many Catholic's that visit your site everyday you might want to go to this site, www.catholic.com. You will find they have sent millions of Catholics a guide to voting. I must say IMHO, they do have some very sound reasons for their choices and wondered how you feel about the guide. It has been in several quality newspapers that you have referred to. Their video is very interesting to listen to. I know you are well versed in the bible and have said you think the Catholics have it right. Curious on your take honey.

Take good care of Rosemary and pat her lil' belly for me. Gosh I'm excited about having another grandson. Give her a huge hug as well.


Lovingly,

Mom...Mary Janelle, and of course what my grandkids call me...JaJa
10.17.2004 9:57am
Janelle :
I didn't mean to draw away from your post here on polls. It could be a good post after you read it to get people's opinion.
10.17.2004 10:03am
Dave (mail) (www):
Hm... I'd have to flip a coin as to whether Zogby would count in the 'reputable' and 'scientifically sound' group... although he IS reliable in that he usually returns numbers slightly slanted towards Kerry.
10.17.2004 10:49am
The Black Republican (mail) (www):
Janelle, for those of us who are faithful Catholics who actually understand our faith, the voter guide at catholic.com is very clear and matter-of-fact. Most of us have understood and voted this way for years - and those who don't understand this are the same people that sow heresy by questioning or outright opposing the magisterium. Not so coincidentally, they also happen to vote in lockstep with the Democratic Party. It's a scandal.
10.17.2004 12:37pm
Janelle :
Huh, I spend a lot of my days at home working on my book and Catholism is very rich in my blood because my Mom went to the finest girls Catholic School in the United States and then I went there for one year after giving up a baby boy for adoption.

I remember the church being very strict and have often wondered why the bible was not taught. My dear friend and doctor here in San Antonio, Dr. Robert Narvaez and his wife of course, did some searching themselves. He went to a church where I was babtized by water. I would attend the same sunday school they did at Castle Hills Baptist Church. He wanted some answers and he had a lot of respect for my thoughts so I attented Holy Spirit church with him.

What is the scandal? The web site says it does not tell you to vote Republican or Democrat. Is the scandal due to Kerry? That's where I am trying in earnest to figure Kerry out.

I've been listening to the live radio show on that site during the week as all of this helps me going back in time in writing my book. I have an appointment on regular standing with a wise scholar on the bible and history at the church I attend now when I am able. Then I see a catholic nun from Catholic Charities and she has been of great comfort.

It seems like so many of us feel this is rough in going to vote. Tommorrow I will be talking to a dear friend and author and now mentor... Steve Brown of Key Life Ministries which air on radio throughtout the country.

Thank you Black Republican and I do hope more people will give input. It brings me so much pleasure when I see people just trying to be human and understand. Man, I've sure got a closet full of sin in my life but my walk is easier when I realize who is in charge.
10.17.2004 5:47pm
The Black Republican (mail) (www):
Janelle, aside from the implications of voiding their tax status, the Church can't spell out any party or candidate to vote for, they can only state Church teaching and hope you can figure it out yourself. Otherwise, the other candidate(s) would claim the Big Bad Catholic Church is trying to "fix" the election.

If you're more curious about the scandal, check these sites: Catholic Kerry Watch and De Fide. It also helps to understand that I'm using the word in its traditional ecclesiastic sense. Check your handy dictionary for that. :-)
10.17.2004 6:39pm
Janelle :
Oh my gosh...no wonder I love coming to my sons blog! Thank you sir! Catholic blogs for Bush.

By the way Black Republican...today is the first day I came out of the closet so to speak. I thank Mrs.duToit, JaneM and Dani. Dani is catholic and I haven't seen her for a while. I know she has RA too and have wondered how she is.

Some things are just too private and due to the love and respect I had for my Mother and Daddy a silent secret tore me to pieces. That is the way our era was and I was just 14. So many people have encouraged me to get the book written that goes along with the song I wrote and published years ago called, A Teddy Bear and A Rose. I am hoping to go back into the recording studio with some people I have lined up to reproduce the original.

Dean has been very loving to me and has offered to print, "The Teddy Bear and a Rose", I just had to get past grieving my daddy's death as he is the only human being on this earth that knew exactly what happened when that musician impregnated me. My heart pounded when I wrote the above. I guess it is because even my children don't know the whole story as they only heard rumor and other family members assumptions of what really happened.

It is my faith, it is my love for this country that has sustained me.
10.17.2004 7:38pm