Prediction Market Update
Dean
Strategypage's prediction market had another seven correct predictions last month. They were pretty straightforward, simple predictions, but most were based on things that had been predicted in the press. As the StrategyPage folks note, the market results seem to indicate that "a lot of what passes of 'news' in the mass media is basically hype."
Interestingly, a couple of weeks ago, after columnist Robert Novak predicted that the U.S. planned to pull almost completely out of Iraq in the beginning of 2005, I put that question to the StrategyPage market. You can find that prospectus here. Note that it's currently running 35 pro, 496 con. In other words, the market so far is saying Novak's full of it. Which, to be honest, is kind of what I thought when I read his silly column.
More fascinating to me is that the market is also currently overwhelmingly predicting that there will be no major military confrontation with Syria in 2005, but--and here's where I gulped--it is openly predicting war with Iran by end of 2005.
Note that, unlike psychics, they do publish the market's correct and incorrect predictions, and their results are still correct over 90% of the time (to date).
* Update * I seem to have somehow misread everything. The markets are predicting the US will announce major withdrawals form Iraq in the first half of 2005, will NOT make war on Iran, but WILL have a major military confrontation with Syria. I wasn't paying close enough attention. I still think the Novak column was silly, but at least on the one part the market's backing him. ;-)
Related Posts (on one page):
- Manipulation
- Ranking The Pollsters
- Prediction Market Update
- Predictive Markets
- Prediction Machines
Do they specify _who_ goes to war with Iran?
They're predicting the U.S. going to war with Iran. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
The specific prediction:
"Major combat operations begin in Iran in 2005 after evidence suggests development of nuclear weapons, and plans to use them against Israeli and/or American interests in Mid-East."
Oh, except it looks like I typed that exactly backwards. They're predicting a AGAINST war with Iran, but are predicting a major military confrontation with Syria--and that Syria asks for the same deal as Libya.