Rick Moran has
become pessimistic on the war, and says time is now our biggest enemy in Iraq. Ah, time.
I remember being told in 2004 Iraqis wouldn’t vote or wanted a theocracy. In 2005 we were informed by experts that the effort to liberalize Iraq was doomed because they couldn’t agree on a constitution, and in 2006 they couldn’t form a government. This year, most were confident the Anbari tribes were never going to join the police. There’s always something for defeatists to point to. Just pick up your morning paper and the MSM will be trumpeting the insoluble problem du jour.
Rick says he has reached his new opinon based on the many
mistakes made in Iraq. Ah, mistakes.
Why was the fleet at Pearl Harbor caught unawares and defenseless? How did hundreds of slow-moving, obsolete torpedo bombers end up being sent into utterly hopeless and futile attacks on the Japanese fleet, attacks from which almost none returned alive? Who decided to send U.S. forces into battle with the underarmed and underarmored Sherman tank? Why did we continue to waste the lives of thousands of Marines in suicidal frontal assaults against fortified Japanese positions long after it was clear the tactic was ineffective? How the
hell did military planners not anticipate Europe would have hedgerows? Surely such incompetence should have doomed our efforts — but of course it did not. Much of the prowess of the Western military tradition is the result of its ability to self-criticize and
adapt, as is happening now in Iraq.
Also, apparently long-forgotten are the brilliant triumphs of 2003, the lightning three-week advance to Baghdad (itself described more than once as “bogged down,” and with at least one prominent retired general predicting disaster, saying “we didn’t bring enough armor to this fight”), the single glorious “thunder run” through Baghdad which was sufficient to cause the regime’s forces to collapse. One must weigh not only failures, but also successes, including the rise of democracy and basic freedoms.
I agree with Rick that Bush has not been a great communicator on the war, which is probably one reason why there is so much excitement about
Giuliani in the GOP despite his social liberalism. With virtually the entire MSM arrayed against the effort, it takes a master orator to put things in their proper context and drive perceptions. But absent such inspired leadership, rational men and women must distill the truth from the morass of agenda-driven journalism themselves, and employ empiricism to draw conclusions. This is where I think those forecasting defeat fail.
In Iraq, if not in America, time appears to be on our side, not against us: in addition to the progress noted above, every day the ISF get a little stronger while the insurgents' relative position gets a little weaker. The
tide has turned in Anbar. Petraeus is deFOBbing our troops into small, local garrisons that create security for Iraqis rather than security from Iraqis. Al-Sadr has fled the field and many Shia militias are apparently standing down.
Here’s a simple point that very few Americans understand: Aside from Sunni Arabs,
most Iraqis don’t think the current situation in Iraq is that bad right now. Polling shows this
over and over again, with a majority saying life is going fairly well. How is that possible, with the car bombs going off all over? Well, Iraq isn’t the U.S. or Europe: if you’re Kurdish or Shia, there’s a good chance you’re digging your relatives out of mass graves put there by the last regime, and you’ve certainly spent the last few decades without
basic freedoms like assembly, speech, and press—or being allowed unrestricted access to things like cars, satellite dishes, computers, and cell phones.
Liberalizing Iraq was never going to be easy, that insufficiently foreseen reality the legacy of a brutal kleptocratic police state dotted with rape rooms and mass graves, where Sunni Arabs terrorized Shia and Kurd with arms bought by oil money stolen out from under those it oppressed. We should just be thankful the price of freedom for Iraq isn’t nearly as bloody as in South Korea, Japan, or Germany — or, as a commenter noted, the American South.
Related Posts (on one page):
- Addendum
- A Reply To Right Wing Nuthouse