As we noted in the post here below on airport security, the Homeland Security Department expressed surprise over the dramatic press conference Wednesday by Attorney General John Ashcroft and FBI Director Robert Mueller in which they warned that a terrorist attack was increasingly likely in the coming months.

The surprise was such that it set off a mini-firestorm in Washington today, leading to the inevitable denial of any problem and a revealing Newsweek analysis by Eleanor Clift that seems to explain some of what unfolded this week.

Warning the public of a monster attack is proving to be a double edged sword. There are all kinds of political pitfalls after the Madrid train bombing. We dealt with this issue in this post here on The Moderate Voice.

But a key issue is: the terrorists timed their bombing in Spain right before the elections since there was a huge gap between the ruling Popular Party and the Socialist party on combating internal terrorism and especially on whether to stay in Iraq. There are some differences between Democrats and Republicans here, but NOT along the lines of what existed in Spain.

Indeed, in his most recent speech Kerry vowed to "destroy the terrorists" and work on an international force to speed up withdrawal of U.S. troops. He also says he wants to bring the troops home "as fast as possible" but that the U.S. can't afford to lose in Iraq. And he called for an increase in U.S. troop strength by 40,000, probably for a decade.

Glenn Reynolds, AKA InstaPundit, quoted Kerry on terrorism and wrote:"More like this, please."

So, other issues aside, there is not the gaping philsophical divide between these two candidates that existed in Spain. Yes, it's election year, and each side wants its candidate to win...but the U.S. ain't Spain.

So Ashcroft lept onto a slippery political slope when he warned of terrorist threats in the summer and pointed to how the terrorists tried to change the verdict in Spain (and of course they did). Ashcroft said:

"The Madrid railway bombings were perceived by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda to have advanced their cause....Al Qaeda may perceive that a large-scale attack in the United States this summer or fall would lead to similar consequences."

He's actually RIGHT, in a statement of fact: they MAY perceive it. But the present context created by columnists, talking heads, and even some GOP insiders who should know better in talking to media types undercurt Ashcroft's statement:

1)Strategist Dick Morris has been widely quoted as urging GWB to heighten awareness of terrorism as an issue since polls show Americans trust him more than Kerry on terrorism. And, indeed, polls do show that (which is why Kerry is out on the hustings talking about foreign policy this week).

2)This ain't Spain. We've had Democrats and Republicans (in the same week) email us INSISTING the gap between the two parties here is the same as in Espana, but anyone with a finger who can punch a keyboard and do a Google search will see smaller differences here. Kerry is underfire in some Demmie quarters for not differentiating himself enough from Bush.

(3)If the warnings are not so grave that other departments were aware of them, then the risk is what Newsweeks' Eleanor Clift notes here, quoting an unnamed Republican Strategist: “The whole point of fighting them over there is so we wouldn’t have to fight them here,” says the GOP strategist. “Are we really safer? Ashcroft seems to be saying no.”

Newsweek also reports a longtime rivalry between the A.G. and Homeland Security Chief Tom Ridge:

An aide to a Republican senator on the Armed Services Committee says, “The divisions between Homeland Security and the Justice Department are as profound as between State and Defense.” In a classic case of Washington intrigue, Ridge reportedly leaked word of the upcoming Ashcroft press conference in order to pre-empt it, then went on the morning shows to assure Americans they should go ahead with their summer plans while Ashcroft is saying the end is near.

But by late today Ashcroft and Ridge were issuing a joint statement, according to Reuters:

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and Attorney General John Ashcroft took the unusual step of issuing a joint statement to say they were cooperating to review the threat of attacks by groups such as al Qaeda in the coming months.

"We are working together, and we will take all necessary actions to protect the American people, including raising the threat level or alerting the public to be on the lookout for possible terrorist suspects, whenever warranted by the information we receive," the statement by Ridge and Ashcroft said.

So the issue of issuing a major terrorism alert is a thorny one since it gets mired in politics...just like everything else in an election year.