This question has been asked before, but I'll ask again. Bin Laden can find a tape recorder, but no video camera??

If something looks wrong, or sounds wrong, it probaly is wrong.

I'm still waiting for the tape to the "good people of the United States" promising safety for all if we elect Kerry.

I believe he has been recorded on video. Its just that they haven't been released or played in the western media. Something about Hamid Karzai talking about these videos. I don't think there's much question that he's still alive.

I beleive that Islamic militants offered a similiar deal after the Madrid bombings. Then a week later a bomb was found under the tracks on the way to Bilbao.

Sleep with dogs, wake up with fleas.

A reader of The Corner over at NRO had this suggestion: "Since it appears bin Laden has offered a treaty, I'd suggest that one of our new allies - perhaps Poland - offer to take him up on it, but on the condition that he present himself to sign the treaty. It would be a win-win: either OBL is killed/captured or he's shown to the world to be a cowardly extortionist."

Sounds good to me. If you agree, spread it around the blogosphere and maybe someone in the administration will run with it...

Dean, here's another possibility: it really is bin Laden, the tape is "legit" in that it's really him, and he's really saying this.

But... He's trying to stir up trouble between Europe and America.

Actually, that's fairly clever. Everyone knows that "Old Europe" (i.e. France, Belgium, and Germany) does not get along with the US any more. And, if all your foreign intelligence is coming from the media, you might actually take seriously the idea that you could split one, or more countries away from the US "war on terror."

But it's only fairly clever. Give it a "C." I have no doubt that, if push came to shove, Germany would stand by us. Begium: who cares?

France I'm not sure of. Seriously, this isn't just pleasant frog-bashing. I don't think France has any electable statesmen right now who are willing to go up against their now-large Muslim minority. I doubt even Chirac would sink that low. But he might be a descendant of Laval.

I assume it is legit, and in that case it sounds like a very stupid mistake. Many European governments are willing to appease the terrorists to avoid attacks, but only if they can rationalise it as something else. Bin Laden has now slapped them in the face with their own cowardice, and nobody is going to take him up on his offer. Even worse, from his point of view, will people be more likely to interprete withdrawals as appeasement.

The reason it may not be a mistake from Bin Laden after all is that the real target audience is not the Europeans. It is fence-sitting radical Muslims. Many of them may think Bin Laden is too extreme, but this is sent out to convince them he is actually a reasonable guy, offering a truce and everything. Yes, it sounds weird, but it may go over well with some closet Jihadists.

JanH comes close. I think it's an appeal by OBL to take some credit for the recent Spanish election and change in government. He hopes to be seen as a political force although no one in Europe or the Islamic world believes that OBL planned and executed the Madrid bombings. Of course, it's a blatant attempt to keep the US at odds with Old Europe etal. I believe also that this will not play and may even backfire on OBL. I've already heard a German diplomat profess that Germany would never be foolish enough to trust this arch terrorist or believe that holding hands with OBL would remove the risk of terrorism from that country. Similar sentiments were, of course, spoken by a British cabinet member (can't remember name) . Saw in on CNN earlier this evening.

The question remains - is the tape authentic?

Usama...yet another flip/flopping swine. First he wants to kill all the infidels, now he's offering them a deal. Chicken!

I can't bloody believe that anybody's still buying into the "Osama's Still Alive" bull.

Going on three years now, and they're still wanting me to believe that this lens whore would pass up on the giant "neener, neener, can't get me" moment coming from circulating a picture of his ugly self holding up today's newspaper?

It'd be the biggest victory for him since 9/11 for crying out loud!

"Look here! The Great Satan sent their entire military might after me, but they couldn't get me!"

All for the price of one photo.

Tell me again that he'd pass up on that.

"But the CIA says so..."

Ever occurred to anybody but me what would happen if Osama bin Liner was confirmed dead? We'd have the entire Moonbat Wing of the Democratic Party up in arms crying "war's over, let's go home, Osama's dead" in a heartbeat. Not that they aren't screaming pretty much that already, but we don't want to give them any ammunition, now do we?

Not to mention that there ARE some advantages to have parts of the the Islamofascist world wondering if El Jefe is still around. If they KNOW that he's dead, they might want to reorganize, but if they're not quite sure... Well, we know that those people don't take kindly to usurpers, don't we?

But hey, by all means, let's continue to pretend that he's still alive and kicking.

Its a little late for a reconciliation offer. OBL must really be feeling the heat to offer this to the European nations. And it seems to me that this says a lot regarding how he views the likely European reaction to the likely American reaction to such an offer.

Problem for him is that he is no super-genius and as he badly misjudged American reasoning and reactions in 2001, he misjudged the European nations.

Strong horse indeed; more like a braying jackass.

i'd have to concur with emperor misha's take on this. I think we've had ubl in the bag for a while now, dead or alive who knows. As President Bush said in one of his speeches following 9/11, there are some victories in this war that the people will never know. Makes more sense to keep it secret while we round up the rest of them. UBL was a camera whore too, that's correct. Of course he'd appear on camera if he could. But he can't.