Dean, I am on record as stating that I believe the Jewish vote for the Dems will fall by at 1/3 this election. I am not necessarily saying they will all go to Bush, but it will be severely down.

The Jewish vote doesn't belong to the Democrats any more. What support they do have is generational (which is actually a nice way to say old). Its not only due to the Democratic support for the anti-Israel crowd. If you read the book Primary Colors you find a pretty good description of the unhealthy Jewish/Democratic Party dynamic. Even though its fiction I think the book states its case quite nicely.

The loss of Jewish Democrats was inevitable. Its accelerating because there are a lot of good political reasons now to vote anti-Democratic if not pro-Bush.

We’ll see. A lot of Jews (or even Israelis for that matter) don’t agree that leaving Sharon free to pursue his “policies” is the same thing as being “stronger on Israel”. I’d say how American Jews vote in November depends quite a bit upon what happens there, but mostly here, over the next few months.

If Bush keeps the focus on Israel and national security, he will greatly increase his percentage of the Jewish vote, but if he gets into a lot of the culture war stuff, he will not get any new Jewish votes.

Waffling? If you are still waffling, take a load of Keffiyeh'd Dean and Carter'd Kerry.

I agree that a lot of it is generational but there is also a lot of blindness in the jewish community. I would have thought most of that had died during the Holocaust but that does not seem to be the case.

Starhawk,

There is the nub of the matter - in my mind, it comes down to the number of Jewish people I know who chow down on a ham and cheese sandwich. They call themselves Jews - but they really aren't in practical terms; disconnected from that which makes people Jewish, they don't have a lot of time for Israel or its particular problems and thus are likely to not be concerned...those Jews who are still Jewish and understand that another wave of anti-Semitism is cresting and that, once again, only the United States stands between the Jews and another Holocaust - they'll vote GOP...what percentage of the Jewish population understands this will be known for certain on November 3rd as we digest the exit polls...those who voted for Bush will be those who understand.

It's true. Large numbers of American Jews are becoming normal at long last and are pulling out from under their traditional high support level for Democrat candidates, policies and campaign bank accounts.

Go read an issue of two of Alexander Cockburn's "Counterpunch" and you can see for yourself the leftist "progressive" mindset when it comes to anything Israeli, or for that matter, Jewish.

More importantly than their voting patterns is that growing numbers of Jews are rethinking their traditional stance against non-police ownership and carrying of firearms.

Some people take a lot longer than others to learn how the world works, draw the right conclusions, and respond to reality. But if Jews can do this, who knows? Maybe there is hope yet for largescale cultural change among Arabs as well.

Well, maybe not in Falluja.

Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI

GOP wishful thinking.

I'm up for some small cash bets.