I give you credit Dean, you are the King of finding the shiney nickle-plated lining to every thundercloud. But I never had the impression that Condi was the person in the administration who ususally was "misunderestimated."

Besides the obvious perjury risk (the "what if she's lying" problem), I think she's in a lose/lose corner now. These are people who never admit defeat or error. She's very much out on the "I wish I could, but I have principles that are bigger than me to defend" limb. To back off now would be simply Much Ado About Nothing -- especially now that Dean's World has exposed the entire charade to the liberal media.

I don't see the case for Bush loosing. I see him winning and the Republicans picking up seats the house and maybe the Senate.

Good call on Moderate Voice. Joe is a regular contributor to Command Post and TCP is all the better for it.

As much as I would like to believe there's some kind of rope-a-dope going on here, a trap set by Rove the evil genius into which the hapless Democrats will inexorably fall, I think it's the other way around this time.

I think Kerry is going to win.

He won't win by a wide margin, but the Republicans- and particularly Rove & Co.- seem anymore to be so damned clueless that it's difficult to see how they will prevail this Fall.

I'm going to do everything I can to prevent it, including donating the legal maximum to Bush's campaign; but I strongly suspect it will be for naught.

Prepare for a Kerry presidency. It's going to be a rough ride.

All I needed to do was look at the headline in the paper. By now, it's just so glaringly obvious that Condi is going to testify---at the exquisite moment when it will cause the most damage to the Dems.

Geesh, will they ever learn not to play poker with a slow-talking, drawling Texas cowboy?

Question: How many remember, three whole months ago, when Howard Dean looked unstoppable as the Democratic nominee?

For all those "angry Democrats" voter turnout in all the Democrate primaries was lower than in 2000.

In May 1984 Reagan and Mondale were tied in the polls. Mondale went on to loose 49 states.

It is seven months until election day. There is a lot of undiscovered country before us.

There is a lot of undiscovered country before us.

Anybody who thinks Wisconsin is a slam-dunk for Kerry is only looking at national politics.

I thought Bush flubbed a similar chance. He could have given the press the chance to cover returning bodies at Dover AFB, which they fussed about---but complete with bands, flags, and speeches about patriotism. Cover THAT, suckers!

But there are valid reasons for the policy, and I bet Bush treated the whole thing with the contempt it deserved.

"I thought Bush flubbed a similar chance. He could have given the press the chance to cover returning bodies at Dover AFB, which they fussed about---but complete with bands, flags, and speeches about patriotism. Cover THAT, suckers!"

After which the Democrats would accuse him of exploiting dead soldiers for political gain. If Bush snapped his fingers and caused OBL to appear in the middle of the White House lawn and spontaneously combust, Terry McAuliffe would hold a press conference that day decrying the Bush Administration's insensitivity to the clean air issue.

Dean, ease up...maybe take a little break from all this noise right now, because you're getting discouraged and there's no reason for it...I've said it before, and call me loony, but I don't think this race is that close at the end...everybody thinks this is going to be a nailbiter...I don't...my gut tells me this ends up similar to the '88 race between Dubya's and Dukakis...not a landslide but not a photofinish, either...a clear win for Bush, probably in the neighborhood of 320-340 electoral votes.

All you have to do is look at the last 4 months to tell you how wrong the conventional wisdom has been, about Dean, and yes, about Bush...

...the one thing the Dems cannot stop is this summer, when millions of taxpayers get the tax refunds again, and in September when seniors starting getting discounts on their prescription drugs...you can't spin away those savings...I also think Iraq will be more stable and the economy will finally kick into overdrive this summer....be patient...this storm will blow over...the Dems have actually got to come up with some ideas of their own, voters are smarter than they think...you cannot win an election on hate and rage and rock-throwing...you've got to have some ideas of your own...so far, Herman Munster hasn't shown us many...

Politics ain't bean-bag. In the Democrats minds Bush has gone from stupid to Machiavellian. I'll bet at least 50% of them think Bush has UBL on ice just waiting for the right time to display the capture.

Funny that no one has mentioned the obvious parallel..... Oliver North.

There was a big runup to his testimony, and everyone said (possibly correctly) that he was at the heart of Iran-Contra, and when it came time he'd be hung out to dry.

Then he shows up, square-jawed in that crisp Marine uniform, being attacked by a bunch of self-serving politicians.... the rest is history. Ollie came out ahead in that mess overall.

Now picture this poised, attractive, intellegent, passionate black women in single combat against a bunch of Democratic Senators out to crucify her.... Bring it on, baby!

And if Bush does "relent"... I agree. He set 'em up from the get-go, again.

Heh.

"...the one thing the Dems cannot stop is this summer, when millions of taxpayers get the tax refunds again, and in September when seniors starting getting discounts on their prescription drugs...you can't spin away those savings...I also think Iraq will be more stable and the economy will finally kick into overdrive this summer..."

You may be right about all of that, Chris. But here's something else that's coming this summer: $3 per gallon gas prices. That's going to hit consumers hard. Not only is it more expensive to drive, but the increased cost of gas for businesses will be passed on to consumers as higher prices for goods. Kerry will jump all over this.

So far, I haven't heard that the administration is particularly concerned about it or that they're doing anything to minimize it. Does anyone have any information to the contrary?

Dave,
Drudge had something on his website a couple of weeks ago about Bush being worried about fuel prices, but I didn't read the link.

I would suspect they are working behind the scenes to have OPEC help. They may also tap the Strategic Reserve. That's been done in the past. Other than that, what tools do they have at their disposal?

[North] shows up, square-jawed in that crisp Marine uniform, being attacked by a bunch of self-serving politicians.... the rest is history. Ollie came out ahead in that mess overall.

Now picture this poised, attractive, intellegent, passionate black women in single combat against a bunch of Democratic Senators out to crucify her.... Bring it on, baby!

Bwah!

I thought you were going to make a parallel between North and Clarke!

BTW & IMHO, that's the more apt comparison -- not Condi.

In any case -- I think this is having less of an effect on the zeitgeist than people think. Tracking polls are showing that Bush's numbers have already bounced back after a bad week.

Bottom line: I'd say that Bush and Condi spent some of their considerable political capital in order to get past this thing on their own terms. In other words, it worked; people have moved on to other things in their minds.

As long as Saudi Arabia wants Kerry to win, it will be difficult for the US to affect gas prices, except for stopping flow into the Strategic Reserve. Look for that to happen late May or early June, so the impact will be in effect by July fourth.

So far, I haven't heard that the administration is particularly concerned about [$3/gal gas] that they're doing anything to minimize it. Does anyone have any information to the contrary?

Yes. POTUS will wait until gas reaches $3/gal then open up the strategic oil reserves.

That'll really screw with the Democrats.

Heh.

Ara, Dave, I'll climb out a little further on that limb (that cracking sound you hear isn't the limb, it's my knees) and say we won't see $3/gallon gas this summer...it'll get to $2 or thereabouts and then start going back down...although, if I'm Dubya, I start making hay with the line that we might not be having $2/gallon gas if we could open up ANWR for exploration...that's a potential fissure in the Dems' situation because the unions have a hard-on to drill ANWAR...each new situation has all sorts of permutations...

I agree with Ara, in a month this issue will be history...people are smarter than Clarke thinks they are...they realize that it's stupid and counterproductive to blame anybody for 9-11 except the monsters to perpetrated it...I was no fan of Clinton, but I can't see where they could have done anything to prevent it, and I don't blame a 7-month old administration for it, either...Clarke is a brilliant guy, but he's also a bully and he doesn't listen to people...the hearings showed me that...I got 2 or 3 Richard Clarkes in my professional past...I bet all of you know someone just like him...he can sell his books and get his payback on Condi, it won't matter a damn in a month...

Ara -

The reason I compare North and Condi, not Clarke, can be illuminated with that classic Michael Deaver anecdote about being shown a Dem ad with a voice over castigating Reagan for not helping down to earth Americans, after which Deaver beamed a smile. It wasn't the words.... it was the pictures.... of healthy and happy looking farmers, workmen, teachers, kids..... Americans. The voice was anti-Reagan, but the pictures swamped them all, and Deaver knew it.

Same thing. Consummate bureaucrat Clarke facing the committee is not even close to the jut-jawed Marine, or, in my opinion, the poised, coiffed and intellegent, but in a way vulnerable Condi Rice. It's all in the pictures.

Regarding the gas prices, didn't Kerry say something about implementing a $.50/gal tax on gas in a speech recently? That won't go over well, especially if the prices continue to rise. The fact is that a lot of what the consumer spends on gas prices is taxes for this and that.

Dean,
Your tendency to believe that Kerry will win despite what you want is intellectually admirable.
But since you say that Bush is a much smarter campaigner and that the economy is doing OK, why do you think Bush will lose? What's the losing issue for him?

I think it's too early to predict the outcome of the election, although I'm more worried about this election than any I've previously followed.

While history would argue against my position, I think the next big shift in the election will be the selection of a running mate. If Kerry picks a moderate southerner (aka Graham, Edwards, etc), and Cheney feigns health problems to let Bush pick Guiliani, I think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to hold it together with New York up for grabs. In some ways, I think the power of the vice presidency has changed with the last two administrations, and may add some weight to the decision.

I also worry about another terrorist attack, which sadly, I think is likely. I think it's hard to say how it would effect the election, particularly if the Clarke, ONeill meme takes root.

I think it is going to be a wild ride. It probably won't be a nailbiter on election day, and most likely it will be a forgone conclusion before the voting even starts. That said, I don't know which candidate will be the one riding easily to victory.

Sure, Dean, try to make it seem as though Bush is Bugs Bunny and the Democrats are Daffy Duck. All I can say is, that’s dithspicable!

Two things: 1) Rice lost her credibility when she uttered the CYA lie: "I don't think anybody could have predicted that ... [Al Queda] would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile". 2) Clarke has called for the release of the complete record, his proposed plan of January 2001 and the plan finally put forward by Rice in July, along with any e-mails the two exchanged. As long as the White House declassifies and releases only the few sentences that seem to support the administration, they simply aren’t trustworthy on the issue.

"If Kerry picks a moderate southerner (aka Graham, Edwards, etc), and Cheney feigns health problems to let Bush pick Guiliani, I think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to hold it together with New York up for grabs. In some ways, I think the power of the vice presidency has changed with the last two administrations, and may add some weight to the decision."

Problem is, the very fact that the position has more power now might pose a problem for Guiliani, since it makes the position more significant to those deciding who gets it. A lot of Republican delegates might have real problems with having a VP candidate as liberal on social issues as Guiliani on the ticket, though the aura of 9/11 might help a lot with that problem (as it would with the usual suspects making racism accusations against him). I suspect that McAuliffe would pull every dirty trick he had to keep Rudy off the ticket if it looked likely to happen.

But here's something else that's coming this summer: $3 per gallon gas prices.

You know, every time people start talking about how high gas prices are going to go, they start going down. Gas prices here in Seattle have fallen 10-20 cents (depending on where you buy) over the last couple weeks. I bought gas at $1.85 two fillups ago; yesterday I saw $1.67.

I don't know what conclusion to draw from this.

"Regarding the gas prices, didn't Kerry say something about implementing a $.50/gal tax on gas in a speech recently? That won't go over well, especially if the prices continue to rise."

If so, then that doesn't sound like much of a solution.

Now picture this poised, attractive, intellegent, passionate black women in single combat against a bunch of * * * Senators out to crucify her.... * * * the poised, coiffed and intellegent, but in a way vulnerable ANITA HILL. It's all in the pictures...

Worked out for her . . NOT!

So, Dr. Rice has already testified in closed hearings? Then why does even FOX news, not normally noted for parrotting the Democrapic party line, say that 'she has yet to testify'?

Not that I doubt your info, I just want the URL so I can hit some people with it.

Chuckg,

I believe it is a sematic issue. Rice has already _briefed_ the committee in private, but she has yet to _testify_, since that would be potentially in public, and certainly under oath. So it is technically correct to say that she has appeared before the committee, but she has not given testimony.

As shep drools more Donk Kool-Aid onto the keyboard, he writes:
'Rice lost her credibility when she uttered the CYA lie: "I don't think anybody could have predicted that ... [Al Queda] would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile". '

Um, who did predict that? I recall hearing some general brain-storming that suggested something like it, but I don't remember them specifically mentioning al Qaeda.

Actually, the real surprise was that AQ was willing to spend almost two dozen trained operatives on a suicide mission. Up until then, the accepted analysis was that they would never go with such a plan after they had invested the time, money, and training on those men.

But I have come to have faith in shep, by now. He's like a big, anthropoid cicada. He will, like clockwork:

-Criticize Bush, and praise the man's opponent.
-Explain away every piece of evidence that tends to show Bush in a good light.
-Make a really annoying sound, just like cicadas do.
-Leave a disgusting husk of his previous body on the trunk of your favorite tree.
-And he'll do it every %$@%!#* 17 minutes, instead of 17 years!!

Ok, I made up the bit about the husk. :))

Sam -- ah, so it's semantic quibbling?

*nods*

That makes perfect sense. This *is* an election year, after all.

Chuckg,

Not just sematic quibbling. It's also legal quibbling. IANAL, but telling a lie during a briefing can't earn you a perjury rap, although I suspect you could get someone under the same law they tagged Marth Stewart with. Telling a lie during testimony under oath is perjury.

Me, I take legal quibbles more seriously, due to an abborrence of jail time and the other things we do to felons, like prohibit them from voting, office holding and gun possession.

Yours,
Wince

Actually Casey (sorry to bug ya :), a fair bit of intelligence suggested that terrorists might use aircraft as missiles, including an actual attempt that had been thwarted in 1994 to do that very thing (of course the target was the Eiffel Tower in Paris so, no biggy). Clarke himself helped Atlanta develop a plan to protect against terrorists flying planes into the Olympic Stadium in 2000, when he found out that they hadn’t anticipated that danger. So Condi either lied or hadn’t done her homework and think she does her homework. Here, have some Kool-AID on me (I call it “k-n-o-w-l-e-d-g-e”):

http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/wot/sept11/hijplanesmissiles.html

…and I swear I didn’t see this until last night:

http://www.comics.com/wash/genepool/archive/genepool-20040329.html

shep,

You've got to learn the difference between a lie and a misstatement. If I say, "Nobody thought they'd hit a building with a plane" I may be giving you a shortened form of the following statement, "I examined the issue with a number of experts, and we believed, based on the profile of previous Al Quada missions that they would not use this number of highly trained operatives in this way." I admit this is speculation, since I do not know what she was thinking at the time. Of course, neither do you. All Condi had to do to not be lying was believe her statement was correct. Her statement was clearly and absolutely an opinion (and hyperbole as well), since nobody can actually poll everybody in order to find out that nobody believes anything. You have a difference of opinion. That's not a lie. Hyperbole is not a lie. Were you using hyperbole when you called her a liar? Here's an alternative speculative internal statement you might find amusing: "Nobody, except that arrogant creep Clarke who keeps ignoring official channels, ever thought they'd fly planes into a building, and I'll be damned if I'll give him the satisfaction of mentioning him on TV." Find me the politician who truthfully blurts out all the internal criticisms of the folks they disagree with and I'll find you an unemployed politician. He won't even get consulting gigs. I'm certain you've rolled your eyes and suppressed unflattering statements about me. I know I have done so about you. Are we liars because we don't say everything we think?

Ill repeat myself: I'm very tired of hearing people, all of whom are trying their best for this Republic slandering each other and being slandered by each other. People in this country seldom make their opponent's case along side their own. Though this is correctly called stacking the deck, and is a propaganda technique, it is hard to argue both sides of an issue. Do it poorly, and you've merely constructed a straw man. It is also rather wordy. Find me a politician who always argues both sides. I don't know of any. Mostly we delegate that task to our opponents. It's why fisking is so popular. For those of you who want to call someone a liar, may I suggest that you must argue both that he is a liar and that he is not. Otherwise you are stacking the deck, which is deceitful, you nasty liar you!

Yours,
Wince

Wince, you slay me, man. I think I missed your explanation for the "misstatement": "I did not have sexual relations with that woman". Can't wait, though ;-)

shep,

Clearly he was referring to Hillary, meaning ever since Hillary heard about Monica. Your opinion may differ.

Yours,
Wince

You are nothing if not a gentleman, Wince. My compliments

shep: interesting link. I think the thread is weak and tendentious, but it's late and I'm tired, so I'm not going to write it up right now. Maybe on my blog in a couple days.

You will, of course, see Bush as the root cause, you squishy liberal, you! {chuckle}

Also: shep said "sorry to bug ya :)" Hehhehheh, hehhehheh, hehhehheh.

shep said bug! Hehhehheh, hehhehheh, hehhehheh...

That rocks.

A local radio station (WEBN, once the host of Mojo Nixon) did a parody of a local pizza company: "Snappy Tomato Pizza," as "Snappy Cicada Pizza."

They had a pretty catchy jingle; it might even be on the web somewhere. :)