The folks over at Maybe I Think Too Much are having a 2004 election contest: see if you can pick what the final results of the electoral college will be in this year's election. The winners will actually get prizes!
I already registered and made my prediction. One complaint for the contest-holders: after I finished making my state-by-state predictions, I was disappionted that the page did not tell me my totals. So after predicting how all 50 states plus D.C. would swing, I have no idea whether I picked Bush or Kerry to win!
I'm pretty sure I picked Kerry to win, but I'm not sure.
Kerry? Yes. Why is everybody surprised when I say this? I don't plan to vote for the man, and I'm still disgusted with his party's behavior the last three years. What I want to happen is not necessarily what I think will happen. Although I wish I had such magical powers, I don't. If I did, then Kerry would be dumped, and the Democratic ticket would be Lieberman/Clinton, and I just might vote for it.
By the way, someone (I forget who) recently asked me why I think Kerry will win. The reason is simple: the Presidential election is entirely a state-by-state affair. Which is exactly as it should be--the electoral college is a beautiful thing, and I wouldn't change it for the world.
Right now, the electoral college favors Kerry.
If you look at it on a state-by-state basis, Bush has his work cut out for him. I can do a more in-depth analysis but I think it's too early to put that much energy into it just yet. I just note that Bush will probably pick up one or two small states this year but lose a couple of larger ones that he barely won last time, and that'll help Kerry eke out a razor-thin victory.
Kerry might even lose the popular vote, but I think Kerry's going to win.
It's just what I think. I may be wrong.
In a way, I'm almost glad my old friend Gary Utter won't be around to see it. He was a member of Vietnam Vets Against The War alongside John Kerry, and couldn't stand Kerry. Somehow Gary's passing feels like an omen to me, even though I'm not superstutious.
* Update * Hey, now that's service! They've updated the contest code to show you your own and other contestants' totals. Based on state-by-state predictions, here's what I wind up with:I predict that John Kerry will win the election with 270 electoral votes spread across 21 states.
George W. Bush will receive 268 electoral votes spread across 30 states.
Yep, that sounds about right. Kerry in a squeaker. Although I'll be volunteering for Bush and hoping I'm wrong.
We're working on your suggestion, as well as a stats page and Mark (who wrote 99.9999999% of the code) says that he's working on a way for a contestant to display his or her predictions on their web site or blog.
(That'll really put the pressure on him now.)
And, technically, there's only me at MITTM. No "folks" around here, unless you count my cats. ;)
For research, I'd recommend Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections and Election Projection".
Yeah, be assured, it's on the to do list! I plan on a full night of coding.
<fake sarcastic indignation>
Thanks a LOT, guys!
</fake sarcastic indignation>
:-D
I made the change. Now it'll display something like this:
And when you view another contestant's entries (via the user list), you get to see their "synopsis" as well. I almost fell off my chair laughing when I noticed what Thinks Too Much predicted!:
Oooh, man, a tie would be too cool. Then we'd get to see the House pick a President! That hasn't happened since John Quincy Addams!
He who looks into the crystal ball is bound to eat broken glass.
Coupla upcoming factors that favor Bush...
The mess at the conventions that you speak of below. Hurt the Dems badly in 1968, and it sure ain't gonna be Republicans hangin' out with the anarchist fools.
The trial of Saddam Hussien, assuming that it gets underway.
The Olympics will be an anti-American festival that will shock the world. The audiences doing it will be 90% European. This on it's surface seems like it would benefit Kerry, but I think it will engender fierce resentment among the American populace, especially if Iraq IS getting better, and we see millions of Europeans pissed off about a new democracy. People may go out of their way to jam a thumb in the eye of sanctimonious socialists. I sure would.
The bloom will be off the Kerry rose by September.
So that's just a few upcoming events to keep an eye on.
Big Bush vunerability? Gas prices.
The only problem with the House choosing the President is that the Dems will pull another hissy fit if they lose a la Florida 2000. Of course, that is dependent on one thing:
Which House chooses- the one sitting in November, or the new one after the November elections??
Dean, which states do you think will switch from 2000. I gave Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire to Kerry and let him keep New Mexico.
I think Bush will pick up New Mexico. Nevada will also go Bush. Won't help him much when he loses Ohio though....
Dean: I'm curious. Why do you think anything close to a majority are going to vote for Kerry?
If you look at the national polls, Kerry is leading Bush in several of them as we speak.
Fact is I think Bush is gonna lose Ohio this time since Ohioans are in the same boat as Michigan. Washington and other tech-heavy states (except North Carolina) will also stay solidly in the blue states. If Bush ONLY wins the states he wins last time, except loses Ohio, he will lose the Presidency.
Of course we have a lont summer ahead of us and much can happen.
If nothing else, remember this: In NFL football, any team can beat any other on any given Sunday. Even if the odds were against Kerry, just by being in the game he's got a chance to win. Democrat rage is going to drive up their turnout fiercely this time around. They won't be shy about race-baiting, either.
It's gonna be ugly one way or the other.
Dubya wins Ohio...he wins Pennsylvannia...he wins Wisconsin...
quit looking at polls, Dean, jeez it's late March...
..take your beautiful wife to the lake and get a tan...get some more pics of Rosemary and send 'em to me!
Dean, I've been wondering myself about your dour prediction, but I see your point. Us Ohioans are usually necessary, at least for the GOP.
Isn't the statistic something like "none of the last 10 Republican presidents have won without Ohio," or something like that? I recall seeing recently.
I guess I know what I gotta do, since I live just down the street from the local polling spot: borrow my friends' AR-15, look suspiciously at everyone who comes in on November 3, and ask them "'R you a 'Publican?" Heh. (JUST KIDDING)
Dean, I'm mirror-opposite with you: a squeaker for Bush, but I think he has a chance to take California this time.
I think everyone needs to take all these polls with a huge box of salt. If they were all calling it for Bush right now, 48-44, I'd say the same thing: It's a goddam long time to November. I don't think anyone has a lock on it.
Let's not forget: DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN! Heh.
This early in the process, I only have one prediction to make: the election's outcome will be heavily affected (if not decided outright) by an event that has not yet happened.
Casey,
Perhaps it's the din of Bay Area blather that I live in, but I think he has a better chance to win New York than California. Whether it's real or not, it seems like he got tagged with the California Energy Crisis.
I could be wrong, and if you asked my wife, she'd say it's a pretty safe bet that I am.
"Then we'd get to see the House pick a President!"
Hopefully it doesn't go to the Senate at all, otherwise we'd see a Democratic filibuster of the Presidency...
Ohio's gone, fuggettabutit George. That is unless he builds a couple of HUGE tank plants within easy driving distance of the Mahoning and Maumee rivers. THERE ARE NO JOBS HERE. Move to Texas if you want to follow Bush. Please move in time to get registered there and vote for your fearless leader. He'll be joining you soon and the Lone Star State won't get any more red than it already is. Ohio turns blue and my blood pressure levels out.
I know, I know. Time for my medication again.
But look at the bright side, Mark: your typing skills are improving! Heh.
Come to think of it... If I were you, I would go to be early election night, have someone else check the result in the morning, then wake you up with a glass.
If Kerry won, they'll have filled it with an expensive cognac.
If Bush won, they'll have put tranquilizers in the cognac. Or hemlock, your call. :)
Mark, let's just wait and see...and we in Texas get to see him plenty, but we'll be happy to wait 4 more years to get him back here permanently...last time I checked there was at least one job available in Ohio...the Indians need a No. 1 starter...enjoy the summer, don't make yourself crazy (or is it crazier?) about the election...God's Game is a week away...it should be gettin' warm up there pretty soon, get outside, get some sun...
"I predict that George W. Bush will win the election with 341 electoral votes spread across 36 states.
John Kerry will receive 197 electoral votes spread across 15 states."
Thus my prediction at the contest - though I'll probably be modifying it as the year advances (its nice that they'll let you change your predictions). In the end, Kerry just might hang on in MA and DC, but even thats a bit iffy. Right now, my predictions are made in line with recent polling, coupled with voter registration trends, plus a bit of inside knowledge on where the ground war is being fought out (hint; half of its not even being contested by the Democrats in any serious way - they just don't have the people on the ground to do it; the Dems turnout for the Primary was, in a lot of ways, an historic low...they really aren't all that energised; "hate Bush" motivates about 1/4 of the prospective voting population...not nearly enough to move Kerry into the winning collumn; looks bigger, though, when you spend a lot of times on Blogs and reading political crap all day long).
As for why, say, Dean might think that Kerry has a chance - its in that 197 electoral votes which look good, at this moment, for Kerry - thats no small thing, and its well within striking distance of any reasonably good candidate to get up to 270...but Kerry is pretty bad: I haven't decided if he's as bad as Gore in 2000, but he's at least as bad as Dukakis in 1988...
Mark,
Ohio is probably the best chance the Democrats currently have of turning a 2000 Bush State around - but, then again, PA looks like its falling into Bush's lap, and that all by itself would offset the loss of Ohio - which, in the end, I expect to go for President Bush because, well, Kerry's an elitist uber-liberal from Massachusettes and President Bush is just miles ahead of Kerry in every catagory of leadership.
Remember guys: John Kerry, Senator from Massachusettes. John Kennedy was what the core Democratic voter would call today a far-right ideologue - JFK, as it were, couldn't carry Massachusettes today, while he'd simply clean up in the South and Mountain West. The times, they have a-changed...and its simply not feasible for someone like John Kerry to score even an electoral majority in the United States against anything remotely like a decent GOP nominee...President Bush, as it turns out, is a superlative politician.
Mark, keep in mind that, although you can change your prediction, you run the risk of picking a combination that someone else chose earlier. If your new, modified prediction is the most accurate when the final results come in, the earlier vote wins the contest.
The best prediction is the one that looks past the polls and conventions and such, and tries to imagine the results at the voting booths in November.
Also, keep in mind, once registered, you may look at any other contestant's prediction and see where they differ with yours.
Also, a question to the group: Do you seriously think Nader or any other 3rd party candidate will actually win a majority of the vote in any one state? If so, Mark may need to tweak the code a bit to allow for that.
Mark Jaquith, that is. Tweaking the code. Not you, Mark Noonan.
Nevermind. ;)
Too many Marks! Anyhoo... I really doubt Nader will be an issue. Another issue that came up is the possibility of a split vote in Maine or Nebraska... something that hasn't yet happened. These events are highly unlikely, and I really don't see a need to rewrite the code. Or rather... I'd like to spend my time adding features instead of planning for obscure possibilities. :-D
Also, a clarification:
Although if you change your prediction, you risk choosing one that is already chosen by someone else (obviously created before yours), you WILL receive a warning if this happens. So don't be afraid of changing it, because you will be notified if your entry is a duplicate, and you can then tweak it so that it is unique. Of course, you may just leave it as a duplicate for a while, in the hopes that the other(s) who share it will see fit to change theirs. Also, remember that you can leave some states as "undecided" if you're really not sure about them and don't want to risk losing 1/3 of the electoral votes for those states if you choose incorrectly.
I'm currently working on stats, and right now can get the percentage of people who favor Bush or Kerry for a particular state. I plan on making a list of "no contest" states (where there is a more than 85% or so majority of people saying it'll go one way) and making a list of "swing" states where the ratio is closer to 50% (say 50%-65%). Can you think of any other stats that you'd like to see displayed? I'm also considering displaying the synopsis of your prediction on the user list, such as "Dean Esmay ... Dean's World ... Kerry with 270 EVs"
Actually, Pa does not look like it is falling into Bush's lap. I can already tell you what areas are going for Kerry, which will go for Bush, which ones will have higher turn out, and which ones will have less than desired numbers. There are things that could be done to win the state, but they won't be. You have to understand the issues and what matters to these peoples as they see them, not as you think they should.
If Bush won the same states as last time, he wins the election. However, I do not think he will win Ohio, and I have a very good idea as to where Kerry is going to pick up the extra support.
Libertarian,
Oh, come now - don't be coy; where is the uber-liberal from Massachusettes going to pick up the extra support to win?
You're acting like nothing has changed in the Gore 2000 States in the past four years - if President Bush is vulnerable in a few of his 2000 States, then so is Kerry in some of Gore's 2000 States (this all given current polling, rather than looking at more long-term trends). PA is not quite Bush Country, but its rapidly getting there (it helps that President Bush has spent massive amounts of time in that State since 2000 and, also, has built up a huge ground operation; ditto places like NM).
As in all elections, anything is theoretically possible - my fiance asked me what I'd do if Bush ended up losing this November: my answer was start working on defeating Kerry in 2008. Anything can happen - but I challenge anyone to come up with a scenario that gets Kerry to 270 electoral votes (don't need State by State; just give me a run-down of the "light blue" and "pink" States from 2000 tell me which way they fall, and why) and I'll demolish it with ease.
He's a liberal, liberal, liberal Senator from Massachussettes with a whole graveyard in the closet and a campaign persona which makes Al Gore look believable.
A note to those interested: We've finished the statistics display that shows the aggregate prediction, breaks each state down by percentages, also by solid and leaning toward columns, and even the two most partisan predictions.
We've also added a widget (we don't know what else to call it) to display your personal prediction to your readers in several different formats.
Finally, there's a News page where players can keep track of changes, additions, discussions, etc.
Please pass on word of this to your friends. This is a free contest, meant to be good fun for everyone of every idealogical stripe. Your e-mail will never be sold or given away.