Investigative reporter Bill Hobbs has now finished his investigation of the growth of small businesses over the last two years. 20 of 23 states investigated so far have had record LLC growth in the past year, and all 23 have had record growth over the last two years.
Hobbs plans on finishing all 50 states. But in the meantime, here's another sharply important fact you may not have heard: the U.S. poverty rate is lower today than it has been since the early 1970s--and yes, lower than it was during the height of the Clinton years.
it looks like we can say all of the following:
1) Unemployment continues to decline
2) Small businesses, whose jobs are usually overlooked by Federal "job creation" figures, are experiencing an explosive rate of growth.
3) Poverty is at the lowest level it's been in more than a generation, and is continuing to decline.
Why do I suspect that certain people will be very angry to learn all this?
'cuz, it completely proves that all they have been saying about the economy going to hell is totally wrong!!!! And because it proves that they were lying for partisan gain.
Slow down Sparky. As I was saying, better check the other end of the equation before declaring economic victory. I told you yesterday, better check bankruptcies, they are at an all time high.
Utah's Bankruptcy filing rate has slowed, but they are still number one in the nation, they had double the national household average of filings per capita in a nation which set a record of 1.7 million filings last year.
While the aggregate number of filings in Utah during the same period last year, as well as the per household rate is easing, other states' bankruptcy filings have dramatically increased lately.
Indiana's, actual filings have still increased, but the good news is that the rate of increase has slowed. Bottom line is that more people filed last year than the year before, and nation-wide we will undoubtedly hit another new record.
What I find most troubling is the record high past due credit card (non)payments. Like the government, we're still spending, but it's other people's money. The implication was that unemployed folks are using credit cards to bridge the gap while looking for new jobs.
The Federal Reserve's research shows a link between the record high consumer debt and record high bankruptcy filings. Although past due rate on the bigger ticket items was much better than the unsecurred debt, which (I'm just saying...) goes hand in hand with the feudalization of America. Renters still struggling while owners secure their territory. Too bad Clinton vetoed the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2000 which would have made it much more difficult to file. Maybe a few more people would have been out on the streets, but those bankruptcy rates would not have exploded so much during the recession.
Just for fun,you might note that the number of bankruptcy filings increase in all but 10 states plus Puerto Rico and Washington DC.
As I recall, the 1990s saw a steady increase in bankruptcies. We had several record years of bankruptcies as the hieght of the 1990s economic boom, in fact, unless I'm hallucinating that. Should we look it up?
Look it up! The rate has always been growing, but over the last three years the growth has exponentially exploded. Interestingly I noted that the rise and fall of the Utah LLC filings Mr. Hobbs cites exactly tracks their Bankruptcy filings.
Bankruptcy is a trailing indicator. If bankrupties track LLC filings, what is the offset?
Bankruptcy is also linked to social judgement. Once upon a time it bore the same stigma as illegitimacy, but now people feel no shame in bailing on their obligations.
Lastly, you might want to look at the number of mortgage refi's. My hunch is that this is what is fueling the continued strength in consumer spending.
In other words, people are getting a third mortgage so they can buy more stuff.
This is why POTUS is touting the record high percentage of homeownership.
triticale:
Once upon a time there were debtor's prisons and indentured servitude. Social stigma my big red.......Anyway, trailing indicator of what? Of being three months behind on your bills after the unemployment runs out?
Or do you prefer the good old days of feudalism, where the renting class never had a chance of improving their station and the landed gentry solidified their wealth. The middle class has been the strength of this country and they are getting crushed. Without a vibrant middle class our commercial republic might as well be a medieval fiefdom.
This is the the US of A, where if at first you don't suceed, you and your family do not have to be shunned, but can take another stab at the American dream. Of all those new LLC's being filed today, how many will face a chapter 7 or 13 within the next few years? Hopefully these folks will either find a better job climate by then or they will have learned from their mistakes and do it better next time. But more entrepreneurs is at best a neutral statistic in measuring economic recovery until we've got about five years of data to look back on.
remember ... people who are unemployed and fall off unemployment aren't counted. those numbers are flawed.
2) you can tell what's happening economically in an area looking at the numbers for violent crime. when unemployment increases or when people fall off unemployment, violence increases. look at the numbers of murders, robberies and other violence around the country. proof? ..... look at the statistics and compare them. it's obvious.