January Front-Runners Often Lose Nomination
Gallup has an interesting analysis showing that, in Democratic primary elections for President, whoever is the front-runner in January of the election year only wins the nomination about 6 times in 10. Democrats still have a chance to pick a sane nominee, and I continue to hope that they do pick someone other than that poisonous demogogue Howard Dean.
"Only" wins 60% of the time? I understand where you're coming from, though, Dean...
There is enough time for a "stop Dean" candidate to emerge...but its already getting dicey...Gephardt would have to win pretty convincingly in IA and then score at least a strong second in NH....Kerry would have to finish a strong third in IA and then win NH (or come so close that he can, ala Clinton, claim himself to be the "comeback kid")...Clark will have to come in a strong second in NH and then win convincingly in SC....etc, etc, etc...any one of these candidate might be able to do one of the two things after expending great efforts, but to do both parts of the equation? Its getting less likely all the time.
Oddly enough, its Hillary who is the best chance for the Democrats - only she can both stop Dean and keep the Democrats united into the Fall...I still think she'd lose pretty badly (though nowhere near as badly as Dean), but its the sickest sort of fate that the Democrats, ruined as a national Party by the Clinton's, can now only be saved by the Clinton's. And, of course, its even getting a bit late in the game for Hillary to do this....the "Bobby Kennedy" moment is just about here, if its not past already.
I still think Hillary's plan is to go after an open seat in '08, not to attempt to unseat an incumbent in '04. The best she can hope for is for Dean to get the nomination, lose big, and position her to run as the "I told you so" in '08.
I'm really torn about hoping the Democrats get a sane candidate. I'd like to think the Dubya could beat EvilDean easier than some of the others, and I DO want Dubya to win. On the other hand ... what if Dubya lost? It would be better to have a reasonably non-crazed president. EvilDean is NOT that guy.
Past performance may not be useful in anticipating 2004. The primary season is much more front-loaded than ever, making it much more likely for January's front-runner to be the nominee, this time around.