Dean's World
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.:: Dean's World: Predictions ::.

December 31, 2003

Predictions

Here are my predictions for 2004. I make them just because I like making them. We'll review next year to see how we did (I'll review last year's predictions tomorrow I think).

In 2004:

1) Pakistan becomes a major trouble spot for US foreign policy. It may even blow up in our faces, especially if Musharaaf is taken out in a coup.

2) Unemployment drops down to about 5.5% by summer. Real wages continue to increase in almost all sectors.

3) Congress finally does the right thing, and the President signs a school choice provision into law for Washington DC.

4) There is another terrorist attack on US soil, maybe a couple, but nothing as bad as 9/11. Worldwide, terrorism continues to decline, just like it did throughout 2003.

5) The situation in Iraq continues to steadily improve, with only a few more minor setbacks. The transition to an elected government, however, will be uneven. They will not be a fully functioning democracy by year's end, but many of the institutions to make that development possible will be in place. This will be viewed as "failure to adequately plan" by the Bush Administration's critics.

6) There will be a major confrontation with Syria. None, surprisingly, with Iran.

7) Status quo unchanged in North Korea, unless Kim dies (unlikely).

8) Yasser Arafat finally croaks. So does Fidel Castro. Palestine isn't much better off, but Cuba is.

9) A publisher makes an offer on a novel I'm writing with a friend of mine.

How about you guys? Got any predictions of your own?

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Predictions:

1..We get Bin Laden in 2004
2. Powell steps down (or is that Baker steps ON Powell)
3. Another GOP governor steps on his dingle dangle.
4. Bill Clinton named sect Gen of the U.N.

Posted by Tim the Soldier on December 31, 2003 at 8:52 AM


4. Bill Clinton named sect Gen of the U.N.

I thought that there was a rule (or perhaps just a strong tradition) that Secretary General could not come from a country that's a permanent member of the Security Council.

Posted by Alex on December 31, 2003 at 10:03 AM


My prediction?

"He who looks into the crystal ball ends up eating broken glass."

Posted by Ara Rubyan on December 31, 2003 at 10:46 AM


Howard Dean is the first US presidential candidate to garner ZERO electoral college votes. LOL!

Posted by Ralph Stefan on December 31, 2003 at 11:25 AM


Ahem. First Democratic US presidential candidate.

Posted by Ralph Stefan on December 31, 2003 at 11:27 AM


1) WMDs are found and confirmed - both in Syria and Iraq. This will happen after the Democratic Nominee has been selected, but before the election (Jul-Sept).

2) Any Terror attack in the U.S. - no matter how small - will be use by the left as a hammer to show Bush's War on Terror as an abject failure.

3) Dean wins only one or two states.

Posted by Black Oak on December 31, 2003 at 11:48 AM


My Predictions For 2004

  • The Return of the King wins the Best Picture Oscar despite Michael Moore's screams that Aragorn is a "fictitional king" who wasn't elected by the people of Gondor.
  • The Chicago Cubs lose Game Seven of the National League Championship Series and miss the World Series when God reaches down from the heavens and swats a Sammy Sosa game winning homerun back into play.
  • Howard Dean finds Jesus when he ventures down South but misplaces him again somewhere in New England.
  • Prosecution teams wind up with a disappointing 2-2 season in the 2004 Trials of the Century as Kobe Bryant and Michael Jackson both walk while Saddam Hussein and Scott Peterson don't.
  • Fox Television sends Paris Hilton and Nicole Ritchie off to West Virginia for The Simple Life 2 where the girls find life in the coal mines a bit more than they bargained for about ten minutes into Day One. Much hilarity and ditziness ensues.
  • Osama bin Laden finally turns up in the form of a DNA sample scraped from an Afghani cave proving that he's gone onto his heavenly reward of 72 raisins.
  • A scandal rocks the 2004 Olympic Games in Greece when it's discovered that the French synchronized swimming judge is deducting points from American swimmers for having a unilateral cowboy as President.
  • The United Nations tries to prove it is relevant again by declaring 2004 the International Year of Rice but it backfires when rice production drops off while lentil and chickpea farmers have bumper crops.
  • Howard Dean's campaign appeals to the Angry Left/Metrosexual/Guys With Confederate Flags on their Pickup Trucks demographic surprisingly doesn't pan out for him as George W. Bush wins re-election comfortably. Diebold voting machines are immediately blamed for allowing Bush to steal another election.
  • Have a Happy New Year!

    Posted by Randal Robinson on December 31, 2003 at 12:52 PM


    I hope you're right about Arafat and Castro. Have a Happy New Year celebration. --scott

    Posted by J.Scott Barnard on December 31, 2003 at 1:05 PM


    Looks good, Dean.

    But you gotta predict a winner of the Presidential election.

    Posted by The Commissar on December 31, 2003 at 1:50 PM


    Hey Dean, if you only get one right I hope it's #9.

    Happy New Year to you and yours!

    Posted by Greyhawk on December 31, 2003 at 1:51 PM


    Howard Dean loses the Democratic nomination and runs as an independent. The Democratic nominee comes in third. Democrats believe that Bush stole the election, and Dean stole second place.

    Posted by Bob Hawkins on December 31, 2003 at 2:52 PM


    To cover a few that have been missed:

    1. The GOP comes up just short of 60 seats in the Senate - 58-59 seats; while picking up 20-25 seats in the House; in after years, 2004 will be known as the year when the GOP became the governing majority Party.

    2. At least one SC justice retires or dies - sparking off an enormously politicized nomination fight.

    3. The Chargers turn their team around and go 14-2 in the regular season.

    Posted by Mark Noonan on December 31, 2003 at 4:50 PM


    1. Howard Dean is assassinated.

    2. Wesley Clark is the Democratic nominee for president.

    3. Dick Cheney dies of a heart attack.

    4. Bush wins re-election, but again fails to win a plurality of the popular vote.

    5. An earthquake kills one million Californians.

    6. Christ returns.

    Posted by James Thool on December 31, 2003 at 7:01 PM


    Everybody will be one year older.

    Arnold Harris
    Mount Horeb WI

    Posted by Arnold Harris on December 31, 2003 at 7:03 PM


    Everybody will be one year older.

    Except Castro and Arafat...

    Posted by triticale on December 31, 2003 at 9:20 PM


    James,

    Your predictions are filled with death and doom. Whasup wit dat?

    The most outrageous prediction goes to Mark Noonan: The Chargers?!? Are you on crack?


    I also think that the dems will pick up seats in Congress not lose them due to the fact that the Dems are actively campaigning and at least they are getting name and face recognition. I seriously doubt that the GOP is gaining more control, but what I do think is that we will have more voters from both parties moving back toward the center. This is a good thing.


    "Christ returns"

    I didn't know he left.

    btw, Are you sure that the sec gen of the U.N. cannot come from the U.S. ?

    Posted by Tim the Soldier on December 31, 2003 at 10:40 PM


    Just to be different.

    The UN acknowledges that states such as Zimbabwe have been loosing population for the last 5 years.

    The feuding parties in the Democratic Republic of the Congo agree to divide the land between themselves. Three new republics are announced.

    Khazazkstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan announce all contact with the Russian Republic near their borders has been lost. It is later revealed that Moscow is pulling back from certain marginal territories due to lack of personnel.

    U.S. intelligence agencies reveal that due to a population drop of some 50% since the end of World War II Russia now has a population of less than 100 million, and has effective control over only 1/3rd of her claimed area.

    The U.S. and the Russian Republic make a joint announcement regarding the handover of Siberian territory to the U.S. China protests, but in secret reaches an agreement regarding the new US/Chinese border.

    Rumors start to circulate about the new Afghanistan constitution being in reality a state constitution (as in a US state).

    Tunisia and Chad join Libya and the US in an anti terrorist campaign.

    (I probably could come up with more, but my creative juices are running low now. So I'll leave you with what you got here.)

    Posted by Alan Kellogg on December 31, 2003 at 11:25 PM


    (1) Contact is established with Beagle 2.

    (2) Spirit and Opportunity land successfully on Mars.

    (3) Stardust mission to Comet Wild 2 is a wild (ahem) success.

    (4) The Cassini/Huygens combined probe to Saturn is a success.

    (5) Bush announces a new space initiative, return to the Moon and a trip to Mars, on the coattails of these successes.

    (6) The Apollo capsule is dusted off to become the "Orbital Space Plane". The shuttle becomes an unmanned cargo vehicle. We finally bite the bullet and buy a bunch of Soyuz capsules and launchers to supply the ISS with crews.

    (7) Burt Rutan is successful with the X Prize.

    (8) A series of Clementine-style probes is worked on as part of the return to the Moon.

    (9)Firefly: The Movie is wildly successful.

    (10)JMS announces a movie based on Babylon 5.

    Posted by Fred Kiesche on January 01, 2004 at 12:56 AM


    Only a fool predicts, only a newscaster believes.

    Posted by QuantumThnk on January 01, 2004 at 1:44 AM


    1. bin Laden is revealed to be dead, probably in late summer or early fall.
    2. Musharaff is overthrown and the US initiates military action to capture Pakistan's nukes.
    3. Bush is re-elected in a landslide; the democrat carries California, New York, and a few other states.
    4. The Federal Marriage Amendment reports out of the Congress and passes in half of the states by the end of the year.
    5. The olympics are marred by terrorist attacks

    Posted by aphrael on January 02, 2004 at 2:46 AM


     



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