We just learned that the economy appears to have grown at 8.2% last quarter, its best showing since 1984. Yet inflation remains quite low. Consumer confidence is still shaky but steadily improving. Most analysts agree that job growth should continue its slow but steady improvement, and unemployment its slow and steady decline.
It appears that the economy is doing a good job of recovering from the massive body blows it took in the period from 1999 to 2001: the dot-com bubble burst, the multibillion dollar cost of fixing systems to make them Y2K compliant, the corporate mismanagement which finally came to light in 2001, and of course, the biggest blow of all: 9/11, which cost billions in property damage but, far more important, had devastating effects on several key industries, crippled free trade, and shook American confidence to the bone.
Now it appears that only concerns about the war are holding people back. Well, that, and natural pessimism.
Steve Antler's prediction of 4 million net new jobs in the coming year is looking better all the time, by the way.
I blame the Bush tax cuts.
So is everyone who doesn't have a mouthful of crow to swallow first.
That growth is the exact opposite to the direction that the economy would take under Dr. Dean's proposal to re-regulate everything under the wise guidance of... who? The Democratic Party? The editors at NPR?
Jobs are funny thing. Right now, the tech industry is suffering from a lack of experience in critical integration projects, as contracting has been on a decline for three years.
Contracting increases the skills of IT professionals, and the more you know, the more fluid your employment opportunities become.
The jobs have been there for over a year, but many people are still laboring under the assumption that it is a bad economy, so many of the top people are staying put rather than moving around.
When your best people move, you are forced to train up existing staff, which increases the number of potential hires with new skills.
That's when the job hopping begins, which leads to better ideas and technologies, which leads to a trickle down effect for other business units.
The "mood" in the marketplace is changing. The jobs will follow.
And salaries will eventually rise.
So what is the budget deficit like right about now?
I hope I get one of those new jobs soon before I have to cash out all my IRA's.
The deficit, in inflation-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of our total economy, is large, but not as large as it's been at several other points in our history. The people at both CBO and OMB say it's serviceable, especially if growth continues to be strong.
I'd personally like to see them get it smaller, though. In fact, I'd like to see 'em get rid of the damned thing. I have yet to see any Congress really willing to do what it takes to do that, though.
"So what is the budget deficit like right about now?"
First complaint: "The economy's in the tank".
Second complaint: "But it's a jobless recovery".
Third complaint: "But we still have a deficit"
Next complaint: "Half of all Americans earn below median income".
Does anyone else think Bush's economic critics are becoming less relevant by the minute? Why on earth are they trying to ride a dying wave, especially given that even the memory of it will be gone by the election? But congratulations for finding the grey cloud in the blue sky. That's a skill.
mj,
Well, they are busily reviving "homelessness" as an issue...proof positive we're in for a Reagan-style economic boom.