Saddam's Plan
Steve Westbrook has a theory as to what Saddam Hussein's long-term plan is. While I'm a bit skeptical that the man really thought everything would go as it has so far, I'm fairly confident that Steve's right about one thing: Saddam probably gambled that Americans lacked the spine and committment to carry through.
He was partially right. Many of us did/do.
Saddam gambled his own life and won.
(cont. from last comment)
Like Winston Churchill said, "Nothing is more exhilerating than to be shot at with no effect."
Fortunately, Uday and Qusay can't say the same...
Nope - the flare up at the border town about a week into the liberation showed Saddam's plan:
Let the Americans come on, then have infiltrators carry out a Mogadishu or two (and if you can capture and torture some Americans into the bargain, so much the better) and the cowardly Americans will leave. Excellent plan, actually - any other President than this one probably would have flunked the test; and the American people, had they not been conditioned by 9/11, probably would have gone along with such a cowardly retreat.
Saddam miscalculated no worse than Hitler or Hirohito - thinking Americans soft and unwilling to make real sacrifices for victory.
I'm with you, Dean: Saddam expected Americans to lose the will to continue at some point, but I find it hard to believe he expected that point to be over a year into an occupation of his country. It seems more likely that he was trying to create a new Mogadishu, writ large; or more precisely, a new Grozny. Remember the visit by the three retired Russian general officers just before the invasion? I'm sure one of the things they told him was that a U.S. attack on Baghdad would result in a bloody, grinding siege, just as in Chechnya.
The result would be perfect for his purposes: he could negotiate from a position of strength as Bush's popularity plummeted, and make lifting the U.N. sanctions a condition of peace. He'd gain immensely in prestige as the Arab leader who humiliated the U.S., he could go back to building chemical-weapons facilities without let, and U.S. foreign policy would be emasculated for a long while.
And on the subject of Grozny, I strongly, *strongly* recommend reading "Assault on Grozny Downtown", a novel by an officer who served during the 1995-1996 campaign against Grozny. The translation is unfinished but a little unpolished (any Russian speakers out there who can help?), but it's a very moving and powerful account of what happened there.
Chris,
No doubt the Russians (and Saddam...and the Europeans in general) were assuming that any assault on a major town would become a grinding operation....
Sometimes, I do wonder if anyone outside of, oh, Rumsfeld and the Fox News military commentators have been paying attention these past twenty years...
This morning I awoke to hear on radio what is to some beautiful news and to others awful news. Saddam is captured. Congratulations Mr. President. Sorry Mr. Dean and other Democrats. Now for Osama.
Ronn Manchester
Dec. 14, 2003