I still think Clark is an empty suit in terms of the polls: He's just an empty vessel into which one can pour one's views. He's still to crack 10% in New Hampshire.

Is New Hampshire really all that important anymore?

In the last several Presidential primary elections, whoever was ahead in the national polls always won the nomination, regardless of what happened in places like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Clinton lost New Hampshire in '92, just for example.

Clark reportedly took more hits than everybody else at the Dem debate last night. Maybe we're seeing the public automatically rally to whomever is taking the most partisan sniping. (That helps Bush and helped Arnold.) Or, worse for the Dems, the even more unserious nature of Clark's opponents makes him look all the more credible. I know that's supposed to be his appeal, although it doesn't work for me.

ex-Dem, but not-Rep/Green/Libertarian/etc.

I believe that a surge in Clark's numbers really show only that none of the Democrat candidates has any firm support at this time. Clark is picking up some media time.

Given how long to the nomination and even the long lead time to the first primaries, I don't know that this says anything substantial yet.

Clinton lost New Hampshire in '92, just for example.

...and Bush in 2000.

New Hampshire is overrated. As is, I suspect, Iowa.

With neighboring favorite sons Dean and Kerry maybe splitting the NH vote, a respectable third place for Clark should do fine for him.

Then, on to the South (look at the regional numbers) and Super Tuesday.

More on this line in my blog.

It is four months until the first Democrat primaries in 2004, and almost 13 months until the presidential election in November 2004. Much can and will happen between now and then to reshuffle the kaleidoscope of American politics.

Right now, Clark may look like the Dems' best bet to pull down George Bush. But Bush has incumbency, a status not to be taken lightly despite what Schwarzenegger just accomplished in California. Some notes on this:

1) The situation in Iraq -- dare I say it -- really is improving as infrastructure is restored, civilian services are normalized, and a friendly Iraqi government begins to function. The saddamite gangs can and will be flushed out and broken. The politically-laden question about whether the government lied to the world about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq changes to the realization that Bush's strategy of creating a peaceful, western-oriented Iraq can in fact work, with just a little patience on the part of this country.

2) The US economy is showing strong signs of upswing, as manufacturing orders increase, and along with this, people going back on real jobs with real payrolls. This trend probably will not peak by November 2004, but the economy is growing again and there is no evidence it will die off again in the coming year.

3) Schwarzenegger's forceful pull on such broad support from all parts of the California voting population means that he is likely to be able to implement a number of parts of his reform policy in California. So when crunch time comes by late next summer, I suspect he will be touring the land on behalf of George Bush, pulling the same kinds of crowds with the same magic in their eyes as he has been doing in California since August. Clinton has met his match as a crowd-pleaser, and his name is the Terminator.

4) George Bush has a quick sense of humor that can all but destroy humorless but fact-laden folks like Clark or Dean in front of live audiences. Remember what Reagan did to Fritz Mondale in 1984? People in this country, when faced with a choice between someone they respect highly and someone they genuinely like, typically vote for the latter. That's really why Ike beat the eloquent Adlai Stevenson in 1952, even if Adlai sounded like a college professor debating an idiot. And unlike George Herbert Walker Bush of 1992, who was and acted like a spoiled prick from some Connecticut country club, his son is a west Texan with the common touch, who knows how to use this factor in elections.

So don't anyone make the mistake of writing off old Dubya just too soon.

Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI

Iowa is only important in that some of the less well known candidates can gain a little name recognition in the country at large. Isn't Carter the only Iowa winner who was actually elected president up to now ?

Arnold,

Certainly, don't write GW off yet; in fact, "pen" him in for easy re-election next year...

Dean,

Its a worthless poll - it has people who supposedly "lean" Democrat...sorry, but people who "lean" don't tend to vote in primaries.

In the ranks of committed Democrats, Dean is the run-away favorite and this means he'll scoop up the nomination, probably before the end of March for all practical purposes.

Clark Surges Into Lead? Was it molten? Is he OK?