How Iran Is Losing Iraq
It’s being reported they’re training Shia assassination squads to target Iraqi government officials and other targets.
For a long time, a meme of the antiwar left has been “Iran won in Iraq,” based on the notion that Maliki’s SCII/DAWA government’s weakness and long association with Iran during the Saddam regime meant they could do little but be an Iranian satellite. But Iraqi and Iranian interests began diverging the moment the Iraqi leadership took power as a legitimately elected government, with responsibilities to their own country and constituents, and billions a month in oil revenue eliminating any need for further Iranian succor. When Maliki’s U.S.-trained forces finally began taking the fight to the Iran-supported Mahdi Army (and crushing them), the split was complete.
Now Iran has an ongoing problem: under their form of government, they can’t control their worst impulses. Unaccountable rogue theocrats have factions of the military that are willing to violently further their ends, even if the semi-elected government doesn’t approve. Iraqis are growing increasingly resentful of Iranian bombs and rockets killing their friends and family in Basra and Baghdad, and the upcoming assassination attempts against moderate Shia leaders are going to further raise their ire.
The Anbar Awakening began because the Anbari Sunnis resented Al Qaeda’s heavy-handed tactics. Iran’s actions threaten to spark an Iraqi Awakening.
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2 comments
"An Islamic Republic in the orbit of Iran." Isn’t it pathetic that some people are still peddling that profound-sounding slander of the Iraqi people?
Iran has never been very popular in Iraq. Many Iraqis died fighting Iran. Iran was close to over running Basra during the Iran-Iraq war.
Many Iraqi Shiites feel that the Iraqi Arab Shiites are the rightful leaders of the Shiite religion and not the Persian Shiites in Iran. Certainly Sadr believes this and many of his followers in the Mahdi Army do also.
The close historical connection of the SCII and DAWA parties to Iran is one of the arguements Sadr has used against them. Claiming that SCII and DAWA are too close to the Iranian government, and he is the true Iraqi Shiite leader.
There is no question that the Mahdi Army was getting arms and training from Iran, but this does not mean that the Mahdi Army viewed itself as an instrument of Iran. The Mahdi Army was desperate for arms and training, so they were willing to take it from Iran, even though they do not trust Iran. They trusted the US and the Suni even less then they trusted Iran.
Iran was armying the Mahdi Army, even though they knew the Mahdi Army is somewhat anti-Iranian, because they were trying to support fellow Shiites in Iran against bigger enemies, the US and the Suni.
It appears that the Iranians may have used their influence to help convince Sadr and the Mahdi Army to stand down. From this point of view, the Iranians seem to be supporting the SCII/DAWA government over the Mahdi Army.
As to reports from anonoymus sources that Iran is training assasination squads, who knows if this report is reliable or not. This report could be propaganda or it could be based on solid intelligence. There is no way to tell. These assasination squads could be Iran’s plan to retaliate against the US in the event the US or Israel bombs Iran.
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