It ain’t over till it’s over
Hillary Clinton’s win in West Virginia made no difference in the expectations game because everyone expected her to win big. She did pick up 12 more pledged delegates than Obama, lowering her deficit to a “mere” 153. And she did net nearly 150,000 popular votes, which brings her deficit there down to anywhere from 30,000 (including Florida where neither candidate campaigned, and Michigan where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot) to 700,000 (excluding Florida and Michigan, and including RCP’s estimates of the popular vote in the caucus states that didn’t record popular vote totals).
The remaining contests are Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. Baseball Crank estimates that Clinton will net about another 186,000 popular votes from these states (a WV-like blowout in Kentucky and a solid win in Puerto Rico, balanced by solid wins by Obama in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota), or about 6% of votes expected to be cast in these states. By that margin, Clinton will probably net about 11 of the 189 delegates at stake. That just won’t do.
But Baseball Crank’s projections are based on current poll numbers, and there’s still campaigning left to be done. It’s unlikely but not inconceivable that Clinton would win all of the remaining contests, or at least close the margins in the states Obama currently leads by enough that she nets somewhere in the neighborhood of 400,000 popular votes and 20-30 pledged delegates, which would put her comfortably in the lead in popular vote counting Florida but not Michigan, and which would put the pledged delegate count close enough that seating the Florida and Michigan delegations would give her a majority.
Suppose that happens. Suppose almost every primary for the next few weeks goes against the presumptive Democratic nominee, often by huge margins. And suppose the following two and a half months until the convention are filled with Clinton surrogates telling everyone who will listen that Clinton won the popular vote, that she has a lead in pledged delegates if you “let every vote count” (*), and showing electoral college maps based on current polls for McCain vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama — David Wissing has McCain beating Obama by 301 to 237, but Clinton beating McCain by 290 to 248.
How do you think the superdelegates would react to that argument?
Of course, this all hinges on Clinton outperforming her current poll numbers in all the remaining contest. If Obama wins convincingly in Oregon or if he closes the gap in Puerto Rico, it’s hard to imagine Clinton’s arguments working barring an enormous gaffe by Obama between June 3 and the convention. The odds are definitely in Obama’s favor.
(*) — I personally think it’s entirely legitimate for the DNC to refuse to seat delegates selected in unauthorized early primaries. The party has a clear interest in controlling the primary calendar, and refusing to seat delegates is the only leverage they have. But Clinton needs the delegates seated, and her arguments are likely to resonate with many people in a party which still has unhappy memories of Al Gore in 2000.
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6 comments
That all seems about right. Basically it’s a "hail Mary" play at this point by Clinton & Co. to hope for the nomination, but to have any hope at all they have to keep trying. And it’s still not impossible that we’ll see a spectacular implosion that effectively destroys Obama’s candidacy, although that seems very unlikely.
Interesting, so the Democratic party as a whole wants Hilary as a candidate. However, by choosing Hilary the party will alienate all of the nice people that have basically won most of the primaries for Barack Obama. Looks like another lackluster year for the Democratic party. Perhaps this election will help them evaluate why they lost power in the first place. Nah….
I am guessing that either way it goes the "divide et impera" principle applies here. McCain will arrive on the battlefield to find an already broken enemy. If he is any kind of politician he will exploit the weaknesses they have created with this retarded display of stubborness and take all of the spoils.
Off topic: Dean, check your email. I’m trying to send some work your way.
Clinton and Florida/Michigan seems a lot like Sadam Hussein and Russia/France right before Hussien was deposed.
It’s hard to say who the Democratic party as a whole wants. The popular vote margins will be very slim either way, and there have been an awful lot of non-Democrats voting in the Democratic primaries (Operation Chaos voters, and Independents who’ve been voting in the Democratic primary because the Republicans are boring), and different process rules in different states (the biggest being caucuses vs primaries) make it hard to simply add up the popular vote and get meaningful numbers at this level of precision.
My read is that the Democratic party is nearly evenly split on who they want, and each candidate is going to be picking a measure which gives him/herself the edge.
Oh, I agree Democrats (as in the people) are pretty split. The Party however, (The BigWigs in office) mostly back Clinton I am sure. In any case 2025 is a big number and this race has done damage to both campaigns. They will probably go through every state to get those 2025 Delegates slinging mud at each other all the way. Meanwhile, McCain has had plenty of time to strategize and plan his attacks against both candidates while delivering pizza to firemen!
This is why the Dems cannot hold a position and the Republicans are a stronger party. They are better strategists and have stronger party solidarity. Oh, sure during the primaries things got a little ugly, but compared to the Dems race it was nothing. Not to mention if Hilary manages a victory she has proved herself quite disingenuinous (at least to me) in a number of ways. Barack’s suit is well stained with mud and he will only appear dirty next to "spit-shined" McCain.
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