Predictions For Tomorrow TODAY
Today will mark the last truly “big date” in the Democratic Presidential primary race. I think there are four possible outcomes:
1) Obama wins both, in which case Clinton is done.
2) Clinton wins both, in which case Obama is not done but his odds of losing the nomination become stronger.
3) Clinton wins Indiana and loses North Carolina, in which case the agony grinds on for Democrats but Obama remains the presumptive nominee.
4) Obama wins Indiana and loses North Carolina, in which case everybody is confused but Obama is in trouble.
What I think will happen is Clinton will take Indiana comfortably, and Obama will take North Carolina somewhat less comfortably, and Obama’s position as presumptive nominee will be mildly strengthened.
Anyone else see it different?
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4 comments
Nope those scenarios work nicely. I think it will probably be Clinton in Indiana and she loses a squeeker in NC.
Certainly those are the only likely scenarios, if you discount the Zombie apocalypse ruining the voting, which is something I never do.
However, I think Clinton winning Indiana comfortably and Obama narrowly getting by in North Carolina will weaken his position, not strengthen it. If he loses Indiana, he has lost another of the all important battleground states in the general. If he barely wins North Carolina, it shows that his weakness amoung white voters is so great as to make it nearly impossible for him to win the general. Both things that Super Delegates will be looking at. That doesn’t mean he isn’t still the presumptive nominee in this case, but it is a weaker position then it was before.
Dave Justus’s last blog post..Indiana and North Carolina
Yeah, there’s a definitite handicapping factor. Clinton’s expected to win Indiana and Obama’s expected to win NC, so a squeeker in either state could be spun as a moral victory for the underdog.
By splitting the two states Obama comes out the victor because he will likely win NC by a bigger margin than Clinton who will win by maybe 4-5 points. So a net gain of delegates for Obama.
By using the CNN calculator and using realistic predictions on future primaries all Obama needs from the uncommitted delegates is not even 50% of them to pass the magic number of 2025. The fact that he is now getting over 2/3 of the remaining bodes well for him.
Only a major gaffe by Obama keeps him from the nomination.
If Obama should pull out Indiana, it’s race over.
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