Maliki Confronts Rogue Sadr Elements
72 hours or 72 virgins seems to be the offer on the table.
A lot of comparisons to 2004 are being made in the media. Of course, there’s two very important differences between now and 2004: the rise of the Iraqi Army (both in public esteem and in numbers/capability), and the decline in popularity of Sadr’s militia.
Poll after poll after poll says the Iraqis rate the IA as their most trusted institution, way ahead of the coalition and even farther ahead of the militias, which are increasingly blamed for the violence.
In 2004, fighting was a win-win situation for Sadr: either he won militarily, or he gained sympathy by fighting “the occupiers.” This is now a lose-lose proposition for Sadr: he probably loses militarily, and even if he wins he loses in public perception because attacks on the Iraqi Army are far less acceptable: that last D3 Systems poll found only four percent of Iraqis say attacks on the Iraqi Army are justified. They are becoming the backbone of the New Iraq.
UPDATE: At Jules Crittenden’s, Major John reports:
Without going into too much detail - I am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy political move, this was brought on, in part, by the fed up residents of Basrah who want an end to the militia crap - kidnappings, violence, etc. Since the IA and the Coalition are pushing AQI further up North and out, the Iraqis figure it is better to confront the problem now, rather than wait for it to get worse.
The fight up North is the fight to run AQI out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once AQI is beaten. I rather like a direction where the elected government of the people is the one with the guns, and the police are on the street - not the Jaish al Mahdi goons.
UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias claims this is just some street brawl between rival militias.
So now we’re there to provide backup and air support for the Badr Brigade as they try to liquidate their foes in Sadr’s political party.
Is that true? Via Glenn, Bill Roggio has some details that would seem to belie such a characterization:
The current Iraqi offensive has been in the works for some time. The Iraqi Army and police have been massing forces in the South since August 2007, when the Basrah Operational Command was established to coordinate efforts in the region. As of December the Iraqi Army deployed four brigades and an Iraqi Special Operations Forces battalion in Basrah province. The Iraqi National Police deployed two additional battalions to the province.
A battalion is about 1,000 men, a brigade is about 5,000. So we have about 20,000 IA, 2,000 MOI (National Police), and 1,000 Special Ops.
The lightly-armed Ministry of Interior is known to be heavily Badr, but comprise less than 10% of the forces arrayed against Sadr in Basra. Clearly the U.S.-formed, U.S.-trained, relatively apolitical Iraqi Army is the overwhelming majority of this force, and not incidentally also own the vast majority of heavy weaponry. Additionally, the Iraqi Army is so much larger than even the Badr Corps‘ most exaggerated self-estimate that they could not hold more than a small fraction of the ranks of the IA even were they attempting to do so while maintaining their Badr identity, which would be very difficult in any case because the Iraqi Army officer and NCO corps are heavily vetted and indoctrinated by their U.S. trainers. Claims that this is just a clash between militias are plainly ridiculous.
Subscribe to Dean's World by Email
11 comments
Every day we buy for them is precious.
it’s weird how in the media this is being portrayed as yet more sectarian violence with maliki’s party facing off against sadr to try and solidify gains for the next election cycle. but, even if that is true, that the timing or even the operation itself has political motivations or a political dimension, it’s still true that this is a fight that has been a long time in coming, and is probably a very necessary one. The militias have to either go or be subsumed into the uniformed regular army/police.
Well, it can’t be “sectarian. ” They’re the same sect.
“Political,” maybe.
Dave, don’t confuse the issue with facts.
Seriously, though, I’m glad to see this one happening. It’s about time.
[…] Dean’s World: 72 hours or 72 virgins. […]
sectarian as in political sect, yes.
Well, by that definition a Communist insurrection could have been called “sectarian.”
[…] this force, and not incidentally also own the vast majority of heavy weaponry.” From “Maliki Confronts Rogue Sadr Elements“, David Price posting at Dean’s World (27 March […]
[…] and NCO corps are heavily vetted and indoctrinated by their U.S. trainers. “ From “Maliki Confronts Rogue Sadr Elements“, David Price posting at Dean’s World (27 March […]
Good point.
okay okay, “factional.” happy?
You must log in to post a comment.