Democratic Party Crack-Up?
Many sources are worried that fighting between Clinton and Obama will destroy the party’s chances in November. Some conservatives are practically giddy about it.
I think the concern is overstated. While I’m not a Democrat, it’s pretty clear to me that Democrats have a number of advantages going in that won’t go away even if things continue to be somewhat bitter between the Clinton and Obama camps. It’s also increasingly obvious to me that Obama is going to get the nomination barring some incredible self-destruction, and Clinton will almost certainly accept the Veep slot if it’s offered to her–and, even if they aren’t on a ticket together, the idea that all these “new voters” who are coming out in record numbers will stay home in November is almost meaningless, since the number of people we’re talking about compared to a general election turnout is pretty darned small.
I think Democrats just need to concentrate on being as unified on message as they can be while highlighting each others’ differences, and trust that most voters are not going to be petulant babies.
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The real risks for the Democrats is the attention a long, nasty race will draw to each candidate’s negatives, the degree to which the eventual winner will be nailed down to positions chosen to please Democratic primary voters rather than general election swing voters, and the campaign resources expended in ways that are necessary to win primaries but sub-optimal for winning the general election.
“not going to be petulant babies?!”
You ARE talking about Dems, right?
Maniakes: I suspect that the vast majority of voters will be paying no attention whatsoever to politics in any but the most superficial way until the final weeks of the campaign–just like always.
My suspicion is that the superficial attention will be enough to make a difference. Every day Obama spends explaining why he shouldn’t be considered a racists extremist because of Wright’s statements and every day he spends playing more-protectionist-than-thou with Clinton is a day he’s not talking about how McCain is personally to blame for every single thing Bush ever did wrong. Even if most people aren’t really paying attention, the cumulative effect of several months of background noise has an effect their mental images of the candidates. Yes, the election will be decided in the last few weeks when the voters are actively paying attention, but the dialog now is affecting the starting positions for when the real race begins.
I don’t think the Democrats are in any serious danger yet; however, with the two candidates so close together, and with the Clinton campaign working an ‘electability’ angle on the superdelegates the potential for a disaster certainly exists. If Obama supporters seriously believe the nomination was stolen from him by the party establishment the damage could be irrecoverable. If Hillary loses the nomination because Obama had the lead in delegates and the popular vote, Hillary supporters will be angry, but they are not likely to sit out the election en masse.
Time will tell.
J.A. Eddy’s last blog post..Happy Birthday, Zsallia.
Events beyond the control of either party will determine who the next president is. Right now the advantage is with the Democratic candidate whoever he or she might be. But things might look very different in six months.
I will just say that it is hard to overestimate the damage of the Wright incident. Hillary’s blatant fabrications will fade away, they are so common that Americans have come to expect such things from the Clintons, sort of like a dottie old aunt.
But Obama now has several credible instances that significantly challenge his patriotism and his judgment. Those will be remembered.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..Obama’s negatives take huge jump
Dean–I think you underestimate the effect of the Pastor Wright kerfuffle. Like you, I think Obama will ultimately win the nomination. Unlike you, I think these revelations are going to hurt him a great deal in the general election. Most importantly, I think they could swing some very important states–Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, Minnesota, and Virginia, not to mention a state like West Virginia, which is historically Democrat(although it went for Bush last time around). Again, this is my opinion, an opinion that has been uniformly wrong this election, but I think that Obama was always going to struggle to attract certain traditional Democratic voters–white, blue-collar, men, for example. This situation with Wright could guarantee that those voters, and others like them who were on the fence about Obama, are never going to pull the lever for Obama. When presented with a choice between McCain and Obama, and in the privacy of the voting booth, I see enough of those voters pulling the lever for McCain to potentially cost Obama the election in the long run. It is still a long way to November, but I believe something like this will stick with many, many voters.
1) I don’t necessarily think Obama will win the Democratic nomination.
2) Rev “God Damn America” Wright is a story that will not leave the consciousness of white America.
3) Clinton would not agree to quit her campaign and lick Obama’s ass for for the VP slot, which she better than most candidates knows is fully is a meaningless job title unless and until the president dies in office or is assassinated before the end of his term.
4) Clinton will wipe the floor of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party primary with Obama, after 4-1/2 more weeks of mounting doubts about his basic national orientation.
5) If his numbers begin seriously sinking, the super delegates will run away from Obama as if he were infected with a plague. Political party rules are whatever who runs the party says they are. Go ask the Democratic Party voters in Florida and Michigan if you think otherwise.
6) Either Clinton or McCain will be inaugurated president in January 2009.
7) In politics, whatever wins is fair.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
I think that the Dems may also be underestimating the conservative movement to prolong the race between Obama and Clinton. If things continue as they have, the protracted battle will leave the last candidate standing bloodied and bruised. Some have referred to this disruption of the process as “Operation Chaos.”
I think it may be more effective than many pundits realize. Already tens of thousands are rushing to register as Democrats so that they can vote for Clinton…not because they like her, but in order to extend the race until the convention.
I guess time will tell.
Operation Chaos has a built-in backfire potential, both immediately after and for the next series of elections. It was, after all, partially a response to election hijinks from the fringe Dems and the MSM. I think, at Denver, we’ll be hearing alot of Republican demonization going on.
urthsu:
Re: “hearing a lot of Republican demonization going on” in Denver.
… and that is different than normal Democrat behavior how? When? Where? Why? By Whom?
I mean what the heck are you suggesting?
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