That D3 Systems Poll
OK, first off let’s look at the “Was The Invasion Right?” question. This is perhaps the most interesting question, because it’s routinely asserted that the invasion was a mistake due to the bloodshed and chaos the aftermath of the regime’s removal has caused Iraqis. But what do Iraqis think?
Well, the D3 poll says 49% of Iraqis believe the invasion was right. But, as noted earlier, we need to adjust that number, because that poll uses 30% Sunni Arabs, which is much higher than the actual proportion. Some believe Sunnis may be as little as 10% of the population, as they constitute most of those who have left the country. T0 be fair, we’ll give them 15% representation, 25% to the Kurds (Kurdistan has been peaceful, and has probably seen more returnees than refugees), and the remaining 60% to the Shia.
So, the poll says 5% of Sunnis answered “Yes” to this question, 65% of Shia and 87% of Kurds. This means of 100 Sunnis, 5 would answer yes, as would 65 of 100 Shia, and 87 of 100 Kurds. Weighting by the D3 poll’s breakdown, for 100 Iraqis overall we get 1.5 “yes” from Sunni, 16.5 from Kurds, and 33 from Shia for a total of 51 per 100 or 51%, (slightly higher than the D3 result due to rounding in their numbers).
Re-weighting by the real numbers, however, gives a very different result. We get new weighted numbers of .8 Sunni, 22 Kurd, and 39 Shia for a total of about 62%.
So we find that a somewhat astonishing 62% — nearly two-thirds – of Iraqis believe the invasion (of their country, mind you, with all the associated bombing and occupation) was right.
Furthermore, despite all the violence, we can run the same calculation and find that 70% — more than two-thirds — of Iraqis describe their security situation as “very” or “quite” good. We find that 58% have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the central government and 52% also rate that gov’t’s performance as “very good” or “quite good.”
What about Iraq’s “war-torn,” “shattered” economy? 60% of Iraqis find their family’s economic situation very or quite good (this number is not much different than the D3 result because here the Sunni results are not as much of an outlier).
Finally, oft-abused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gets 55% approval and, interestingly, the Kurds actually rate him 16% higher than his fellow Shia Arabs. Given the poll dynamics of the Democratic race here in America, one might argue (based on the polling, at least) that Iraqis are less riven by ethnic differences than Dem primary voters.
UPDATE – Perhaps worth highlighting:
Last August, in Anbar and Baghdad alike, no respondents felt they could live where they wanted without persecution; today 86 percent in Anbar, and 46 in percent in Baghdad, feel they can.
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5 comments
Dave,
thanks for doing the yeoman’s work on this.
That is interesting news that oddly enough is completely at odds with just about everything we hear from the media. Does anyboy else feel the urge to pull out thier hair when they consider that every piece of good news that hear about Iraq is going to be ignored, dismissed and forgotten?
Your assumptions on the proportion of Shia, Sunni and Kurd populations fairly coincide with the CIA World Factbook.
Remember too that the survey oversampled areas among the hardest hit with violence, further skewing toward pessimistic responses.
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