If you see only one chart of Ohio this March…
Let it be this one!
I think Clinton got _very_ lucky with the timing of this election. If trends held– and we have no reason to think they wouldn’t have– and the race gone just a bit longer, Obama would have taken this one too. As it is, whenever he starts campaigning, he starts winning. This isn’t good news for team Clinton.
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6 comments
I’m not sure the trendlines are so meaningful compared to the data points. Notice how Hillary’s points go *whoosh* right before the election - when *she* started campaigning seriously.
Elisha Feger’s last blog post..Zimbabwe: Socialist Worker’s Paradise
I think the trend is misleading.
The data points just show that Obama was much less popular in 2007, which we all know anyway.
If you take only the data points for 2008, you could say that Hillary is currently trending up, and Obama is stuck at a plateau. You can come up with all sorts of “trends” by choosing different time scales.
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It looks pretty typical to me: the race tightened up as undecided voters made their final choices. Is there any real reason to think Obama would have continued to gain? I don’t see one. Take that reasoning far enough and if we just gave it enough time he’d eventually get 100% of the vote.
Dean Esmay’s last blog post..Gary Gygax: 1938 - 2008
I think it would be more enlightening to see a graph of just the last month or so, labeled with major events like the start of a new commercials, etc. There’s too much junk-time on that graph.
Elisha Feger’s last blog post..Final Fantasy 7 for the NES
Once againg the hockey-stick graph fails
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